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<B>THE RESULTS: A nice bell curve up 6-8 dollars on the S&P,
peaking 10:45 - 10:55 AM and then back down about $8 one hour later (11:30
AM) when the move began. .</B>
<BR><B>The majority of the up move occured between 10:30 and 10:45 based
on the five minute bar chart. It may have been more accurate based on more
detailed records, but I can't tell due to a technical problem with my charting
service today. The upside momentmum peak occurred on the 10:45 bar. The
higher high on the 10:55 bar was only a few ticks higher than the 10:45
bar, so if one where to go short here, there would have be minimal "heat"
on the trade. Potentially, one could have made average $7 on the
way up and $7 on the way down, all in one hour. On one E-mini that's
$700 in one hour excluding commissions and slippage.</B><B></B>
<P><B> I would have attached a chart, but having trouble
today with chart service. Perhaps someone would be kind enough to post
a five minute bar for the Sep. S&P</B>
<BR><B>for Monday, June 19? Thanks.</B><B></B>
<P><B>Cheers,</B><B></B>
<P><B>Norman</B>
<P>Earl Adamy wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE><STYLE></STYLE>
I have no interest in engaging in
a pissing contest over this - we are all entitled to post our market opinions
some of which will turn out to be right and some wrong. Although I don't
employ it in my trading, I have no issue what-so-ever with the use of astrology
in trading and I've found some of Bob's posts with astrological charts
most interesting. From my perspective, the valuable and educational insights
are provided by commentary which includes both conclusion and some of the
thinking which went into arriving at the conclusion - we can then judge
what might be right or wrong and why. NW's post was a flat out prediction
with no information regarding derivation (although we know NW sells an
astro forecasting service) nor was there any information regarding how
the information might be used to execute a real live trade. Thus the reader
is left with absolutely nothing of substance which he/she can be apply
to improving their trading, analysis or decision making in the future.
Further, the prediction appeared to be ambiguous enough (in a market which
snacks on 8 point moves) that the odds were small of being wrong. From
my perspective as a contributor of some substance (right and wrong) to
this list, I classified NW's post as nothing more than trolling for fish,
however I thought I'd give him an opportunity to correct that impression.
Unfortunately, I discarded the original post as I prefer to prepare my
own trading plan. However in my query I wrote:: <I>"Did I miss something
here? My apologies but I don't seem to have the original post to insure
I get things right ... I thought I read 3 possible turning point times
in approximate 15 minute increments with the highest probability at 1046
EST followed by comment that an 8 point move (not specified as up or down)
would take place at the turning point or immediately before. I may be dense,
but I can't for the life of me figure out how one could trade that kind
of information even though I can see how one would readily evaluate in
retrospect that such a move occurred. Perhaps you would be kind enough
to re-post the original quote and tell us what kinds of things we would
look for in order to actually enter a trade at the correct time and in
the correct direction? I'm really not looking for a hand-out of 8 points,
but I am very interested in learning how one might trade such turning points."</I> NW
did not choose to correct me (or re-post the predictions), but rather admonished
me to watch the tape at the anointed times. Let's examine this from
the perspective of putting down real money on a real trade. case #1)
assume that the move will commence immediately at the anointed times. Since
we have no way of knowing at which time the move will begin, no indication
of direction, and no indication of time frame (5/10/15/30/60 minute bars),
we must either a) enter a long and short trade at each of the times and
wait to see which direction builds momentum and scratch the opposing trade
or scratch both if no momentum or b) simultaneously watch several intraday
time frames for some sign of trend exhaustion terminating at the designated
times and enter in the opposing direction while hoping that we have chosen
the right time frame in which to trade. case #2) assume that the move
will terminate immediately before the anointed times. Since we have no
information concerning time frame or duration, we need to check oscillator
cycles in numerous time frames in order to guess which cycles in which
time frames might have a move terminating at the anointed times. If
we had some clues regarding time frame, case #1-b would probably be the
most workable (if it were not for case #2). Even in the best case we have
3 times at which to trade and SP will easily fake one out at 2 of the 3
times, unless of course one is lucky enough to grab the 8 points at the
first. Frankly, I view trading as a business of probabilities and I don't
think that the probabilities favor executing a winning trade here. Finally,
I will add something which may be of value to someone. One useful trading
technique is to draw lines at the high and low of the first hour of trading
and then trade in the direction in which trading breaks out of the first
hour's range which, in the case of SP runs from 930-10-30 (eastern). I
have never found this technique to be one which can be traded without other
information (such as dominant trend and price pattern) but the indicated
1045 time frame does occur in close proximity to the period in which we
would look for first hour breakout. Earl----- Original Message -----From:
"ted stampeen" <tedco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Monday, June 19, 2000 1:15 AMSubject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook,...A Reply
to NW > if you think about it a little more objectively, Norm did
give substance
<BR>> in coming on and saying there will be some moves at a certain time,
<BR>> so if your trading these markets, one can write these down and watch
<BR>> and see what comes of it.. and if they come to pass, well,, maybe
he
<BR>> would post some more and more, then , you could see for yourself
if his way
<BR>> is better than yours,,and if its a lot better,, you would be wiser
and
<BR>> richer to become a student..
<BR>>
<BR>> there are others on the list who , when asked about a certain indicator,
<BR>> etc, say flat out that its proprietary, but because they are not
selling a
<BR>> course, people just accept it , and don't accuse them of holding
out etc.
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>> Though by now, we could assume that it would have something
to do
<BR>> with astrology, seeing as that's Norm thing. I'm sure he wouldn't
mind
<BR>> confirming this..
<BR>>
<BR>> think of it this way,, if everyone here that does have a service
, or
<BR>> course, came on here (tastefully), and said "this is what were doing,"
<BR>> etc, based on their methology, we could all watch and see who is
<BR>> right etc,, then if we notice that someone is actually getting rich
, and
<BR>> were not, well we now have a new place to go and learn , and maybe
get rich
<BR>> ourselves.. to me THIS IS SUBSTANCE.
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>> once again , my 2 cents,
<BR>> goodtrading / Ted
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>> > In a message dated 6/18/00 9:45:48 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
<BR>> > nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
writes:
<BR>> >
<BR>> > NW: I didn't say around "11:30" AM EST. I said
10:46 AM EDT. You ask
<BR>> me
<BR>> > to post my market information and then try to berate me for
doing it. To
<BR>> > quote that great modern philosphoper Jerry Seinfeld,
"What's the deal?"
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: Norman,...you're missing the point,....and chosing to
make a big deal
<BR>> > over a minor point (nothing). Getting back to the issue,..has
to do with
<BR>> > your "Market Comment" post of 06-17 being nothing more than an
<BR>> > advertisement,...your version of "bait" for new students..etc.
You chose
<BR>> NOT
<BR>> > to repsond to the following:
<BR>> >
<BR>> > (Just a guess,...but when Earl said he'd "be interested in seeing
the
<BR>> > thoughts of others on the list" I just assumed he meant with
regard to
<BR>> > MARKET OUTLOOK.
<BR>> > Perhaps I am mistaken,..but your post looks alot like the text
of an
<BR>> > infomercial or advertisement, seeing as how only your "students"
are
<BR>> privy
<BR>> > to your insights,....etc.
<BR>> > Just wondering if you have a MARKET OTLOOK you'd care to share
with others
<BR>> on
<BR>> > the RT list. If so that'd be great,..and I'd likely stop
these annoying
<BR>> > replies to your "posts".)
<BR>> >
<BR>> > NW: At this rate, it will be another four months or more
before I post
<BR>> > anything similar.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: Give me a break Norman,..is this supposed to make me
grovel and beg
<BR>> you
<BR>> > to change your mind?
<BR>> >
<BR>> > NW: Things must be pretty tough for you to have to tear down
someone's
<BR>> > market projections, in order for you to feel better, and before
it has
<BR>> even
<BR>> > had a fair trial in the market.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: Norman,...you're wrong again. In real time trading
I am up 62.7% on
<BR>> > trading account and 44.25% YTD on entire portfolio (including mutual
<BR>> > funds..etc) ,...vs. the NASDAQ which is down -5.13% or the S&P500
down
<BR>> > -0.33%. How about you,...what are your YTD real time
ACTUALLY ACHIUEVED
<BR>> > trading returns?
<BR>> > So things are not "pretty tough" for me,..nor am I tearing down
your
<BR>> precious
<BR>> > "Market Projection".
<BR>> >
<BR>> > NW: How about after I am wrong on Monday, you can have
a real picnic
<BR>> > posting how stupid I am?
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: Norman,..rest assured that I and the thousand or so others
who are
<BR>> > interested in your "projection" will be anxiously watching the
<BR>> > (NASDAQ?,...S&P500,.... NYSE?,....or the Dow?....you never
actually said)
<BR>> at
<BR>> > the all important 10:45 am EST pivot.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > NW: On the other hand, if the times I posted are anywhere
near right,
<BR>> > perhaps you
<BR>> > will consider getting off my case permanently? This
totally unfair
<BR>> behavior
<BR>> > is a good incentive for me not to post anything.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: Again,..it's not the intraday forecast,...it's the advertisement
<BR>> > "format" of your post above that I reponded to ....nothing of substance
<BR>> > regarding "Market Forecast"....and this is nothing personal,..so
don't
<BR>> make
<BR>> > it that way.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > NW: I am trying to give away some money and you are
spoiling the party.
<BR>> Why
<BR>> > ruin it for the rest of the list? Check out the eggs before
you kill the
<BR>> > goose.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: Could this be the same Norman who on 01-22-00 posted
"All of Life is
<BR>> ONe
<BR>> > Big Advertisement" (I have a copy if anyone wants to read it)....NW:
"
<BR>> Wake
<BR>> > up people. All of life is one big advertisement. No one does anything
for
<BR>> > free unless they think they can somehow benefit."
<BR>> >
<BR>> > JP: What happened Norman,..did you suddenly get religion
and decide to
<BR>> > loosen up and really share your ideas so that others could learn
and
<BR>> benefit?
<BR>> > LOL... Give me a break,....Scheeesch.
<BR>> >
<BR>> > Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
<BR>> >
<BR>> >
<BR>> >
<BR>> >
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>>
<BR>></BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jun 19 15:48:37 2000
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Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2000 18:40:13 -0400
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: Bob Fulks <bfulks@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Mutual fund switching
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Status:
>your commodity basket sounds excellent - would you have some
>performance stats for it to share with me ?
It used a Markowitz optimization and a "basket" of 3 commodities increased the Sharpe Ratio by close to the theoretical SQRT(3).
A basket of 15 commodities increased it further but not by the theoretical SQRT(15).
Sharpe
1 commodity (JY) 0.94
3 commodities 1.76
15 commodities 2.20
It was a very simple daily system backtested over 13 years with holding periods of months.
I was working with another trader so am not at liberty to disclose too many details.
Bob
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