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<DIV><FONT size=2>This is the OEXastro chart referred to in my preceeding
post.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BobR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, June 19, 2000 5:18 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Re: Market Outlook,...A
Reply to NW</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I have no interest in engaging in a pissing contest over this - we are
all entitled to post our market opinions some of which will turn out
to be right and some wrong. Although I don't employ it in my trading, I
have no issue what-so-ever with the use of astrology in trading and I've found
some of Bob's posts with astrological charts most interesting. From my
perspective, the valuable and educational insights are provided by
commentary which includes both conclusion and some of the thinking which went
into arriving at the conclusion - we can then judge what might be right or
wrong and why. NW's post was a flat out prediction with no information
regarding derivation (although we know NW sells an astro forecasting
service) nor was there any information regarding how the information might be
used to execute a real live trade. Thus the reader is left with absolutely
nothing of substance which he/she can be apply to improving their trading,
analysis or decision making in the future. Further, the prediction appeared to
be ambiguous enough (in a market which snacks on 8 point moves) that the odds
were small of being wrong. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>From my perspective as a contributor of some substance (right and wrong)
to this list, I classified NW's post as nothing more than trolling for fish,
however I thought I'd give him an opportunity to correct that impression.
Unfortunately, I discarded the original post as I prefer to prepare my own
trading plan. However in my query I wrote::</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><EM>"Did I miss something here? My apologies but I don't seem to have the
original post to insure I get things right ... I thought I read 3 possible
turning point times in approximate 15 minute increments with the highest
probability at 1046 EST followed by comment that an 8 point move (not
specified as up or down) would take place at the turning point or immediately
before. I may be dense, but I can't for the life of me figure out how one
could trade that kind of information even though I can see how one would
readily evaluate in retrospect that such a move occurred. Perhaps you would be
kind enough to re-post the original quote and tell us what kinds of things we
would look for in order to actually enter a trade at the correct time and in
the correct direction? I'm really not looking for a hand-out of 8 points, but
I am very interested in learning how one might trade such turning
points."</EM></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>NW did not choose to correct me (or re-post the predictions), but rather
admonished me to watch the tape at the anointed times.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Let's examine this from the perspective of putting down real money on a
real trade.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>case #1) assume that the move will commence immediately at the
anointed times. Since we have no way of knowing at which time the move will
begin, no indication of direction, and no indication of time frame
(5/10/15/30/60 minute bars), we must either a) enter a long and short
trade at each of the times and wait to see which direction builds momentum and
scratch the opposing trade or scratch both if no momentum or b) simultaneously
watch several intraday time frames for some sign of trend exhaustion
terminating at the designated times and enter in the opposing direction while
hoping that we have chosen the right time frame in which to trade.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>case #2) assume that the move will terminate immediately before the
anointed times. Since we have no information concerning time frame or
duration, we need to check oscillator cycles in numerous time frames in order
to guess which cycles in which time frames might have a move terminating at
the anointed times.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If we had some clues regarding time frame, case #1-b would probably be
the most workable (if it were not for case #2). Even in the best case we have
3 times at which to trade and SP will easily fake one out at 2 of the 3 times,
unless of course one is lucky enough to grab the 8 points at the first.
Frankly, I view trading as a business of probabilities and I don't think that
the probabilities favor executing a winning trade here.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Finally, I will add something which may be of value to someone. One
useful trading technique is to draw lines at the high and low of the first
hour of trading and then trade in the direction in which trading breaks out of
the first hour's range which, in the case of SP runs from 930-10-30 (eastern).
I have never found this technique to be one which can be traded without other
information (such as dominant trend and price pattern) but the indicated 1045
time frame does occur in close proximity to the period in which we would look
for first hour breakout.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl<BR></DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message -----
<DIV>From: "ted stampeen" <<A
href="mailto:tedco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>tedco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Monday, June 19, 2000 1:15 AM</DIV>
<DIV>Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook,...A Reply to NW</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>> if you think about it a little more objectively, Norm did
give substance<BR>> in coming on and saying there will be some moves at a
certain time,<BR>> so if your trading these markets, one can write these
down and watch<BR>> and see what comes of it.. and if they come to pass,
well,, maybe he<BR>> would post some more and more, then , you could see
for yourself if his way<BR>> is better than yours,,and if its a lot
better,, you would be wiser and<BR>> richer to become a student..<BR>>
<BR>> there are others on the list who , when asked about a certain
indicator,<BR>> etc, say flat out that its proprietary, but because they
are not selling a<BR>> course, people just accept it , and don't accuse
them of holding out etc.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> Though by now,
we could assume that it would have something to do<BR>> with astrology,
seeing as that's Norm thing. I'm sure he wouldn't mind<BR>> confirming
this..<BR>> <BR>> think of it this way,, if everyone here that does have
a service , or<BR>> course, came on here (tastefully), and said "this is
what were doing,"<BR>> etc, based on their methology, we could all watch
and see who is<BR>> right etc,, then if we notice that someone is actually
getting rich , and<BR>> were not, well we now have a new place to go and
learn , and maybe get rich<BR>> ourselves.. to me THIS IS
SUBSTANCE.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> once again , my 2 cents,<BR>>
goodtrading / Ted<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>>
<BR>> > In a message dated 6/18/00 9:45:48 AM Pacific Daylight
Time,<BR>> > <A
href="mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
writes:<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: I didn't say around
"11:30" AM EST. I said 10:46 AM EDT. You ask<BR>> me<BR>> > to
post my market information and then try to berate me for doing it.
To<BR>> > quote that great modern philosphoper Jerry
Seinfeld, "What's the deal?"<BR>> ><BR>> > JP:
Norman,...you're missing the point,....and chosing to make a big deal<BR>>
> over a minor point (nothing). Getting back to the issue,..has to do
with<BR>> > your "Market Comment" post of 06-17 being nothing more than
an<BR>> > advertisement,...your version of "bait" for new
students..etc. You chose<BR>> NOT<BR>> > to repsond to the
following:<BR>> ><BR>> > (Just a guess,...but when Earl said he'd
"be interested in seeing the<BR>> > thoughts of others on the
list" I just assumed he meant with regard to<BR>> > MARKET
OUTLOOK.<BR>> > Perhaps I am mistaken,..but your post looks alot like
the text of an<BR>> > infomercial or advertisement, seeing as how
only your "students" are<BR>> privy<BR>> > to your
insights,....etc.<BR>> > Just wondering if you have a MARKET OTLOOK
you'd care to share with others<BR>> on<BR>> > the RT list. If
so that'd be great,..and I'd likely stop these annoying<BR>> > replies
to your "posts".)<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: At this rate, it will be
another four months or more before I post<BR>> > anything
similar.<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: Give me a break Norman,..is this
supposed to make me grovel and beg<BR>> you<BR>> > to change your
mind?<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: Things must be pretty tough for you
to have to tear down someone's<BR>> > market projections, in order for
you to feel better, and before it has<BR>> even<BR>> > had a fair
trial in the market.<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: Norman,...you're
wrong again. In real time trading I am up 62.7% on<BR>> > trading
account and 44.25% YTD on entire portfolio (including mutual<BR>> >
funds..etc) ,...vs. the NASDAQ which is down -5.13% or the S&P500
down<BR>> > -0.33%. How about you,...what are your YTD real
time ACTUALLY ACHIUEVED<BR>> > trading returns?<BR>> > So things
are not "pretty tough" for me,..nor am I tearing down your<BR>>
precious<BR>> > "Market Projection".<BR>> ><BR>> >
NW: How about after I am wrong on Monday, you can have a real
picnic<BR>> > posting how stupid I am?<BR>> ><BR>> >
JP: Norman,..rest assured that I and the thousand or so others who
are<BR>> > interested in your "projection" will be anxiously watching
the<BR>> > (NASDAQ?,...S&P500,.... NYSE?,....or the Dow?....you
never actually said)<BR>> at<BR>> > the all important 10:45 am EST
pivot.<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: On the other hand, if the
times I posted are anywhere near right,<BR>> > perhaps you<BR>>
> will consider getting off my case permanently? This totally
unfair<BR>> behavior<BR>> > is a good incentive for me not to post
anything.<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: Again,..it's not the intraday
forecast,...it's the advertisement<BR>> > "format" of your post above
that I reponded to ....nothing of substance<BR>> > regarding "Market
Forecast"....and this is nothing personal,..so don't<BR>> make<BR>> >
it that way.<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: I am trying to give
away some money and you are spoiling the party.<BR>> Why<BR>> > ruin
it for the rest of the list? Check out the eggs before you kill
the<BR>> > goose.<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: Could this be the
same Norman who on 01-22-00 posted "All of Life is<BR>> ONe<BR>> >
Big Advertisement" (I have a copy if anyone wants to read it)....NW:
"<BR>> Wake<BR>> > up people. All of life is one big advertisement.
No one does anything for<BR>> > free unless they think they can somehow
benefit."<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: What happened Norman,..did you
suddenly get religion and decide to<BR>> > loosen up and really share
your ideas so that others could learn and<BR>> benefit?<BR>> >
LOL... Give me a break,....Scheeesch.<BR>> ><BR>> > Jim
Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx<BR>>
><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>>
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