|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi Jim,
I've got to be one in a million, due to anything that James Cramer writes
hasn't help me make a dime. On Jan 1, 2000 I posted my CIT for the year, June 30
being one of those days. In the last month or so what I've been trying to watch
is the psychological behavior of investors. I watch the message boards on yahoo
and raging bull, also CBS market watch.
What many are calling the Summer rally and into Dec. Is a little odd. Reason,
its just talk, nothing written in stone. Analysis have been telling folks that
the fed wont raise rates and to get ready for the rally. Brokers have been
repeating this info. to there customers and anyone else who will listen.
People on message boards have been repeating this.
So, even if the Fed raises rates, will there be a summer rally? I think so
because enough people will believe to be.
For the past few weeks I've been running test on the yahoo message boards on
various tech stocks. I wanted to see how fast I could push investors anger
buttons. It took about 30 mins for the most angriest of people to show up. Now
these folks aren't traders, investors. They still wanted me dead. The result
yahoo kicked me off of posting anymore messages on there boards.
Look at the DOT.coms, nothing has changed with these stocks they still can't make
a penny. But why won't investors buy these stocks anymore? The psychological
behavior has changed.
To sum this up. I think there will be a summer rally and it will be explosive.
TradeWell,
Joe Frabosilio
Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Found the following article interesting,..thought others might also.
> In my opinion,..the bottomline,..skepticism and fear are still high here.
> Despite the move up off late May lows. Such dis-belief (fear) combined
> with sidelined cash says potential exists for near-term sharp move higher.
> Very constructive from a contrary perspecitve. Regards, Jim P.
> ***************************************************************************
> Smarter Money: Tempted by Trading Again? Not So Fast!
>
> By James J. Cramer 06/16/00 11:41 AM ET
>
> Many of you are still reeling from the charnel house that was the peak in the
> Nasdaq earlier this year. You have seen the market stabilize and you are
> thinking, "Hmmm, maybe I can have another go at it."
>
> You are thinking that you tasted some quick profits and then you got hurt,
> but things seems to have settled down and maybe it is worth trying trading
> again. You're thinking this way because that darkened, out-of-the-corner
> profession -- the kind where you bought and sold a couple of times a day --
> made you more than you earned in weeks, or even months, at your real job. For
> some, trading became an obsession.
>
> Oh, don't you think I know it? Me, who has stood at payphones while ferries
> pulled away with my family onboard, as I tried frantically to book a July IBM
> (IBM:NYSE - news) call gain 12 years ago? Me, who got kicked out of class at
> Harvard because I wouldn't stop charting stocks? I know the obsession. And I
> knew it during the days when commissions killed profits and the Net was just
> a gleam in Al Gore's eye.
> So, it is with sober reflection that I remind you that one of the reasons why
> the market has calmed down is that people aren't doing that stuff anymore. It
> got too hard and people lost too much money.
>
> Another reason it has calmed down is because the losses were so staggering
> that consumer spending has dropped off a cliff. We are not faced with the
> prospects of a hard landing from a nation that suddenly feels a lot poorer
> than it did on March 10.
> Maybe you could be the one to wade back in. But I think the prudent course is
> to wait. To keep that current job and to remember that trading can be fun and
> easy or it can be brutal and shocking and disappointing. Long before I had
> diary entries on the Web I would get up at 2 a.m. and ask, "How could I have
> done that in Maxtor (MXTR:Nasdaq - news), how could I have lost all of that
> money?" Or, "What was I thinking with those BKX calls?" Or, "Of course, there
> was never to be an American Brands takeover, but how can I ever look myself
> in the mirror again for speculating like that?" Hundreds of notes to myself
> in entries kept by hand.
>
> And I'm good at this game.
>
> My words aren't enough, because in the end I was left standing when the angel
> of losses came by the Nasdaq at 5000.
|