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I have slowly learned that forecasting casts a particular scenario of the
market you are forecasting as a likely and high a probable even. I then am
mentally prepared for this scenario to happen, and when it does not. I have
no plan and usually end up frustrated. If I had forecast the Nolan deep
plunge on the 8th, I would be setting my self up for nothing in the way of
its opposite or just the market ambling like it is now. In short I would be
frozen.
What I am able to do now is garner a set of probabilies for an up or down
gap open and a probability for an up or down close.
Which ever has the highest odds usually takes the day. But often its 45:55
which then places trading back on to price and forces me to respect price,
momentum, net issues, net volume, trin and the tick..
For the S&P futures
Don
From: Terry Smith <tesla@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 12, 2000 6:25 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: R: Is there's a method in the madness?
> This discussion about card reading and other forms of market prediction
> ignore one important aspect. THE MARKET YOU ARE TRYING TO MASTER. In my
> experince the farther away from the market you get with predictions the
> worse off you will be financially. In trying to master the markets spend
> more time studying the actual market you have chosen and less time away
from
> that study. One of the best traders I know pays no attention to Astrology,
> conspiracies, cnbc, or anything else EXCEPT price action of the market he
is
> trading. He spends his time studying the actual market he is trading. He
is
> still taking money out of the market while many a "fortune teller" has
gone
> bankrupt and left the trading arena. Happy trading.
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