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> I know Bill says indicators are BS -- particularly those that
> attempt to "predict" market conditions.
Not so Clyde!
While I may think they are useless for day trading, I have always said that
they may have their place or value for position trading. Clearly, if you
are not going to be in front of your computer most of the time, you want to
get whatever warning you can and I am sure there are indicators which will
help. I am sure that a cross-over moving average type of indicator or your
own swing machine will help the position trader.
But when it comes to day trading the bonds, you are in front of the machine
and your eye watching the price action is the fastest, most accurate means
of know what's going on. My chart yesterday showed exactly what I mean.
You can see the wedge build, you do not need and indicator to tell you it is
building; furthermore, by watching it tick away you can get a feel for the
momentum, which no indicator is going to give you the message any sooner.
Waiting for the ADX or RSI or MACD or, or, or, will more than likely cost
you dearly. At best, waiting for it to cross the line (and maybe back
again in a trice!), will probably ruin your risk to reward on the trade and
at worst put you into the trade just when you ought to be coming out of it!
But I am talking day trading. Day trading the bonds. Reading the tape.
Using a total method of trading, with various checks and balances to help
you take out more than you lose. As I said, if an indicator could do it for
me, I would use it. The reason I have 112, I think it is, in my Analysis
Techniques box, is because I am willing to look at them, but then have to
discard them as useless - sometimes even dangerous.
But I would not be so foolish as to say all indicators are BS, as you put
it. Position traders use them all the time (they certainly can't use
intraday price action, now can they?) but it is quite the reverse for day
traders - well that is my experience on the bonds and I know there are a lot
of people on this very list that can vouch for that!
Anyway, let's move on...
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
"Learn to read the tape"
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