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AGet's time clusters study is somewhat of a hit or miss tool unless I
can get confirmation on a number of similar components. In the case of
equities, I don't place a great deal of confidence in the projections
unless I get similar readings from several major equity indexes. I ran
time clusters on 10 indexes (exchange composite, 3 DJ, SP, Russell, and
Value Line) and found modest confluence on May 11-17 daily, nothing in
May on the weekly, strong confluence around Jun 06-08 on daily, and
almost unanimous confluence on June 12 on weekly.
My NYSE and NASDAQ breadth models are not screaming bullish, however
they don't look that shabby. In combination with the time clusters, this
may be telling us that there will be some relatively minor trend changes
in mid-May and a major trend change in mid-June. If I were to hazard a
silly wild ass guess, I would guess that we may rally (choppily?) into
the mid-May time frame, decline into mid-June, then commence a major
rally. I did not catalog them as May/June pivots are not in place,
however I noted that July was showing some major time clusters. Bottom
line for now - 06-08 June appears to be the major TP ahead.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, April 29, 2000 8:16 AM
Subject: [RT] NEAR TERM CYCLE DATE PROJECTIONS (J. Pilliod)
> Posted by Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx Sat 04-29-00
>
> Regards to all,.... had minor computer problems,...but I am back now.
Just
> wanted to say THANKS to Sam Hewitt who a few days ago posted Time
Ratio
> series chart for the Dow. Using files similar to Nature's Pulse, the
chart
> points
> to next week as a likely turning point timeframe. (I'd be curious as
to
> Sam's opinon now that we are close,..do you think this turn will come
in as a
> High or a Low?)
>
> In my humble opinion,..market analysis related discussion is something
we on
> RT forum should be focusing on more often. Moderator John Boggio
recently
> mentioned the need to focus on market related topics,....and with the
> exception
> of Earl Adamy,...and a few other regular contributors,..there really
is not
> much discussion of the market. What happened?,..it didn't use to be
this
> way. My
> guess is that the recent "tough" market has caused RT'rs to withdraw
and
> focus
> on their own work, which is unfortunate in a way because now is the
important
> time to be focused on market related topics. So this post is my effor
to
> "precipitate" some market related discussion.
>
> Following is from my personal End of Week notes,..and has to do with
> Near Term Cycle Date Projections:
>
> Look Ahead Month of May Pivot Dates: My short/intermediate term cycle
> analysis focuses on 13, 17, 19 and 33/34 mkt day cycle counts, noting
dates
> in a "series" and projecting these count forward to identify likely
turning
> points.
> From End of Week 04-21, I noted that "Mon 04-24 is likely near term
low
> (19 mkt day count): 12-31-99 + 19 mkt days = 01-28 + 19 mkt days =
02-25 +20
> mkt days = 04-24 likely low." It worked, Mon 04-24 was a key low.
Going
> forward 19 mkt days from 04-24 indicates 05-19 as an IMPORTANT DATE.
> And 05-19 is indicated as by other methods (see below). So my likely
pivot
> dates for May are:
>
> 05-04-00: Is a 13 mkt day count from key low 04-14, and a New Moon,
and astro
> conjunction date, and B. Carver time ratio date. So 05-04 very
likely pivot.
>
> 05-11-00: Is 47 mkt day count from 03-06, in a 47 mkt day count 12-23,
10-15,
>
> 08-10-99, 06-02-99. And,..05-11 is a 13 mkt day count from 04-24
pivot date.
>
> Also, both Bradely Models point to 05-11 as key time for year 2000.
>
> 05-19-00: Is 19 mkt days from key low 04-24. Since 12-31-99 a key
turn has
> occured every 19-20 mkt days: 12-31-99 + 19 mkt days = 01-28 + 19 mkt
> days = 02-25 +20 mkt days = 04-24 (key low) and projecting this series
> forward indicates 05-19-00. Also friend Kris Kaufman's Parallax
(Neural
> Projection) indicates 05-19 as one of six Weekly Turn dates for the
Dow in
> Year 2000. This increases the likelihood that 05-19 is IMPORTANT.
Also
> 05-19 is indicated by one other method I favor. And 05-18 is a Full
Moon,
> close enough.
>
> In general...these are time frames in May I will be especially ALERT
for a
> change in trend (short or intermediate term). Again, this methodology
does
> not indicate whether the "Pivot" will come in as a High or a
Low,....best to
> wait and see market diercetion into the date and look for a reversal
at that
> time.
>
> *******************
> Also note Pete Bresnahan's Calendar (similar focus) at:
> http://trendpulse.com/frames.htm once in site,.click on "CALENDAR".
> Pete should have the calendar for May posted soon.
>
> *******************
> Prior to posting this to RT, a friend as me "Why ? Why did the 19 day
count
> work for 04-24 date....but more important is why 19 ? And even more
important
> - How does one identify this 'magic' number 19 ?". My reply was:
>
> 1. Most all my short term count is based on the 3 week cycle which is
13
> market days pivot to pivot (it matters not whether pivots are lows or
highs).
> The 13 mkt day count can be broken in half,..ie. 7 days up, 6
down,..etc.
> If you take 1/2 of the 13 day count,..(i.e. 6.5 mkt days),..added to
13 days,
> ...equals 19 market days. So what I am seeing with the 19 mkt days
count
> here (since the 12-31-99 date)is really a "one and a half times" a
normal
> three week (13mkt day) cycle. It is a cycle and a half so to speak.
>
> 2. More importantly,..why 19 days?....BECAUSE THE PIVOTS ARE THERE.
> Those dates I mentioned in the post above, separated by 19-20 mkt
days..
> (12-31-99, 01-28, 02-25, an now 04-24)...EACH WERE SIGNIFICANT PIVOTS.
> The fact that they exist is enough for me,..even if the "count" of
market
> days
> in the series is outside of those which I usually focus on. Sometimes
it
> takes
> real focus to pick up on the counts,..but the cycles become more
apparent
> the more you focus on this methodology.
>
> Bigger picture,..a short term cycle can be "overwhelmed" by a longer
term
> cycle,...(monthly or yearly) which will cause the shorter term cycle
to
> transition to the right or left,..or become different in count. In the
past I
> have NOT been that successful at longer term cycle analysis,..so as a
result,
> ..for short term trading,..my focus is on what is happening now, and
in
> particular counts including 13, 17, 19 and 33-34 mkt days,..etc.
> Hope this helps...I know it is different and confusing at best.
>
> **************
> Finally, ...previously others here on RT have posted commentary on the
> significance of the 05-03 to 05-05 timeframe. I believe friend Ned
Markson
> is viewing 05-04 and 05-05 as likely important date. And I believe
Norm
> Winski posted that this time frame is significant from a planetary
alignment
> (excuse me if I am mistaken,..but I have that in my notes from
> somewhere),...and 05-04 is a New Moon, ofen a turn point date for the
> markets. I do remember Norm posting that "May will be huge",
...hmmmm. So
> for Norm and others focused on turn point dates,.. ....I'd like to ask
" what
> do you see near term with regard to market direction,..pivot
dates,..etc."
>
> Let's get some near term market related discussions going.
>
> Best Regards to all,..and have a great week ahead. Jim Pilliod
> jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
>
>
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