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Posted by Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx Sat 04-29-00
Regards to all,.... had minor computer problems,...but I am back now. Just
wanted to say THANKS to Sam Hewitt who a few days ago posted Time Ratio
series chart for the Dow. Using files similar to Nature's Pulse, the chart
points
to next week as a likely turning point timeframe. (I'd be curious as to
Sam's opinon now that we are close,..do you think this turn will come in as a
High or a Low?)
In my humble opinion,..market analysis related discussion is something we on
RT forum should be focusing on more often. Moderator John Boggio recently
mentioned the need to focus on market related topics,....and with the
exception
of Earl Adamy,...and a few other regular contributors,..there really is not
much discussion of the market. What happened?,..it didn't use to be this
way. My
guess is that the recent "tough" market has caused RT'rs to withdraw and
focus
on their own work, which is unfortunate in a way because now is the important
time to be focused on market related topics. So this post is my effor to
"precipitate" some market related discussion.
Following is from my personal End of Week notes,..and has to do with
Near Term Cycle Date Projections:
Look Ahead Month of May Pivot Dates: My short/intermediate term cycle
analysis focuses on 13, 17, 19 and 33/34 mkt day cycle counts, noting dates
in a "series" and projecting these count forward to identify likely turning
points.
>From End of Week 04-21, I noted that "Mon 04-24 is likely near term low
(19 mkt day count): 12-31-99 + 19 mkt days = 01-28 + 19 mkt days = 02-25 +20
mkt days = 04-24 likely low." It worked, Mon 04-24 was a key low. Going
forward 19 mkt days from 04-24 indicates 05-19 as an IMPORTANT DATE.
And 05-19 is indicated as by other methods (see below). So my likely pivot
dates for May are:
05-04-00: Is a 13 mkt day count from key low 04-14, and a New Moon, and astro
conjunction date, and B. Carver time ratio date. So 05-04 very likely pivot.
05-11-00: Is 47 mkt day count from 03-06, in a 47 mkt day count 12-23, 10-15,
08-10-99, 06-02-99. And,..05-11 is a 13 mkt day count from 04-24 pivot date.
Also, both Bradely Models point to 05-11 as key time for year 2000.
05-19-00: Is 19 mkt days from key low 04-24. Since 12-31-99 a key turn has
occured every 19-20 mkt days: 12-31-99 + 19 mkt days = 01-28 + 19 mkt
days = 02-25 +20 mkt days = 04-24 (key low) and projecting this series
forward indicates 05-19-00. Also friend Kris Kaufman's Parallax (Neural
Projection) indicates 05-19 as one of six Weekly Turn dates for the Dow in
Year 2000. This increases the likelihood that 05-19 is IMPORTANT. Also
05-19 is indicated by one other method I favor. And 05-18 is a Full Moon,
close enough.
In general...these are time frames in May I will be especially ALERT for a
change in trend (short or intermediate term). Again, this methodology does
not indicate whether the "Pivot" will come in as a High or a Low,....best to
wait and see market diercetion into the date and look for a reversal at that
time.
*******************
Also note Pete Bresnahan's Calendar (similar focus) at:
http://trendpulse.com/frames.htm once in site,.click on "CALENDAR".
Pete should have the calendar for May posted soon.
*******************
Prior to posting this to RT, a friend as me "Why ? Why did the 19 day count
work for 04-24 date....but more important is why 19 ? And even more important
- How does one identify this 'magic' number 19 ?". My reply was:
1. Most all my short term count is based on the 3 week cycle which is 13
market days pivot to pivot (it matters not whether pivots are lows or highs).
The 13 mkt day count can be broken in half,..ie. 7 days up, 6 down,..etc.
If you take 1/2 of the 13 day count,..(i.e. 6.5 mkt days),..added to 13 days,
...equals 19 market days. So what I am seeing with the 19 mkt days count
here (since the 12-31-99 date)is really a "one and a half times" a normal
three week (13mkt day) cycle. It is a cycle and a half so to speak.
2. More importantly,..why 19 days?....BECAUSE THE PIVOTS ARE THERE.
Those dates I mentioned in the post above, separated by 19-20 mkt days..
(12-31-99, 01-28, 02-25, an now 04-24)...EACH WERE SIGNIFICANT PIVOTS.
The fact that they exist is enough for me,..even if the "count" of market
days
in the series is outside of those which I usually focus on. Sometimes it
takes
real focus to pick up on the counts,..but the cycles become more apparent
the more you focus on this methodology.
Bigger picture,..a short term cycle can be "overwhelmed" by a longer term
cycle,...(monthly or yearly) which will cause the shorter term cycle to
transition to the right or left,..or become different in count. In the past I
have NOT been that successful at longer term cycle analysis,..so as a result,
..for short term trading,..my focus is on what is happening now, and in
particular counts including 13, 17, 19 and 33-34 mkt days,..etc.
Hope this helps...I know it is different and confusing at best.
**************
Finally, ...previously others here on RT have posted commentary on the
significance of the 05-03 to 05-05 timeframe. I believe friend Ned Markson
is viewing 05-04 and 05-05 as likely important date. And I believe Norm
Winski posted that this time frame is significant from a planetary alignment
(excuse me if I am mistaken,..but I have that in my notes from
somewhere),...and 05-04 is a New Moon, ofen a turn point date for the
markets. I do remember Norm posting that "May will be huge", ...hmmmm. So
for Norm and others focused on turn point dates,.. ....I'd like to ask " what
do you see near term with regard to market direction,..pivot dates,..etc."
Let's get some near term market related discussions going.
Best Regards to all,..and have a great week ahead. Jim Pilliod
jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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