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<DIV><FONT size=2>Can anyone recommend an internet news tracking service that
can tract\k earnings news for100-300 symbols in real
time?</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Apr 16 14:29:55 2000
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From: "Gitanshu Buch" <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] GEN: Parabolic patterns, Bear Markets 1
Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 16:39:37 -0400
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Status:
Hello everybody
Before you start seeing the scary chart patterns in the following few
emails, I "implore" you to read this <g> if not for provoking some thought,
then for some entertainment:
The one thing I learned from trading the markets these past years is this:
Bear markets anticipate bad news, and bull markets anticipate the good news.
In that, the market is a proactive mechanism, not a reactive mechanism.
Bear markets seldom react to bad news. Bull markets seldom react to the good
news.
If it seems that markets are reacting to the news, then the market is not
what it is made out to be: An anticipating mechanism.
For someone to come out and say that yesterday or last week was caused by
fears of rising inflation... well, consider some recent history:
On May 14, 1999, also a Friday, a bad CPI number printed and the Dow sold
off some 140 points.
In mid-June, 1999 the Fed raised interest rates, but the market took off on
June 24 to all time highs in 4 short weeks.
If the market's reaction is not as one would expect (eg a stock not going up
on great earnings) then the market has a message in that price action. If
the market does indeed go down on bad news, it is
- either a surprise to the market (which happens, but is rare)
- or coincidental to the market's overall structure - and thus irrelevant.
Consider the two charts attached here.
The crude oil market "knew" at $10/bbl that low prices were soon to be
history.
The Compaq market "knew" that management was mis-interpreting the upcoming
quarter.
I say this to preface the following emails, which deal with parabolic
patterns and my observations on the equity market we find ourselves in going
into what many feel will be a scary week.
Last week - in my opinion - was a buyer's strike coupled with some
institutional distribution, which is different from a bear market.
A bear market, the way I understand it, is where buyers become sellers and
sellers remain sellers.
At issue today is the art of figuring out whether we are in something
secular (long term bear market) or something cyclical (cash raising from
margin calls, tax payments, buyers' strike etc).
If the market is falling because of the latter reason, well, one can call it
what one wants, but one would - on balance - be better off being net long.
As always, I will trade what I see and not what I think.
Buy stuff moving higher, sell stuff moving lower.
Thus while my eyes see more charts breaking down than breaking upside, my
feel for the market says that this is just another one of those crazy times
when nobody wants to buy.
Gitanshu
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