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Gwenael,
I agree on that, the market should see big volatilities. It wasn't from any chart
or story on the net. Just observing the people around me, who all of a sudden got
started on trading stocks and didn't know what they were doing. (NO Plan). On
Wednesday I must have recieved about 10 phone calls from people wanting to know,
whats up with MSFT. By the 5th phone call on the same stock and person I didn't
even really know, I said that report will cost you $40. One of the questions I
asked was, what is your time frame? Since they all claimed to be investors. On
the other end of the phone sounded something like this, @!$%@#$^#@^, translation,
not a clue.
So they were investors acting like traders. I'm expecting some margin calls to
start coming in since, these traders/investors are scared to death of a drop and
they bought NOK, MSFT, NITE etc, near the All time highs.
Funny thing thou, I haven't heard or seen commericals on Mutual Funds. Someone
on another email listing said that their Mutual Funds are down a lot and hoping
for a recovery.
So, Yes there is going to be some interesting days ahead. Will they buy on the
dips, or sell into the rallies? After selling into the rally, where will they put
their money???
Sorry for the long gab,
TradeWell,
Joe Frabosilio
Gwenael Gautier wrote:
> Hum, I wonder if this market will not test all of us in some way, both longs,
> shorts, value and tech holders...
>
> I really expect big volatilities...
>
> Gwenn
>
> Prosper wrote:
>
> > Avoiding a fight in the markets is a little like trying to win a tug of war
> > hands off. Although the markets are getting more and more volatile, there is
> > little long term evidence that the market is in any sort of down trend.
> >
> > On the attached Monthly chart of the S&P futures the white line is the mid
> > point of the range and we don't even have evidence of weakness. Until the
> > white line goes below the green line no weakness, and until the white line
> > goes below the 1X1 angle the up trend is in force. I still see this market
> > making the target I mentioned previously. To get it simply multiply the 1929
> > high by 40.
> >
> > Prosper
> >
> > > There is this old rule: when witnessing a domestic fight, don't meddle
> > > or you will end up hit by both...
> > >
> > > At the moment we are witnessing such a fight:
> > > - longs vs shorts,
> > > - believers in old against believers in new economy,
> > > - new business models vs valuation criteria
> > > - believers in sweeping changes through internet, vs belief there ain't
> > > anything new
> > > - herds fleeing from group of stocks to other
> > > - etc
> > >
> > > A few weeks ago, saying I am moving out of stocks, I got laughed at.
> > > Well I exited too early admittedly, but now I don't hear anything
> > > anymore about why I should remain long. instead, many are pondering how
> > > far down we could go, targets, short selling opportunities etc. I know I
> > > am certainly too early again, but I know it never comes as everyone
> > > expects. My view is we'll have neither the clean crash nor the clean run
> > > back up, we'll have a nice saloon door. Too many have made (big) money
> > > in too short a time. The market being the best device ever invented to
> > > separate portfolios from their cash, I presume we are entering a period
> > > where it will remain wildly unpredictable without regular and long
> > > enough trends, so that everyone will get hit no matter what they do.
> > >
> > > In my view, this is the time where you typically a/ pull out completely
> > > or b/ follow your system religiously, hoping the drawdown won't be too
> > > bad. In other words, this years profitability will be played out now,
> > > measured by the amount of discipline one can retain in the face of
> > > extreme and shifting emotions.
> > >
> > > Gwenn
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
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