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Hum, I wonder if this market will not test all of us in some way, both longs,
shorts, value and tech holders...
I really expect big volatilities...
Gwenn
Prosper wrote:
> Avoiding a fight in the markets is a little like trying to win a tug of war
> hands off. Although the markets are getting more and more volatile, there is
> little long term evidence that the market is in any sort of down trend.
>
> On the attached Monthly chart of the S&P futures the white line is the mid
> point of the range and we don't even have evidence of weakness. Until the
> white line goes below the green line no weakness, and until the white line
> goes below the 1X1 angle the up trend is in force. I still see this market
> making the target I mentioned previously. To get it simply multiply the 1929
> high by 40.
>
> Prosper
>
> > There is this old rule: when witnessing a domestic fight, don't meddle
> > or you will end up hit by both...
> >
> > At the moment we are witnessing such a fight:
> > - longs vs shorts,
> > - believers in old against believers in new economy,
> > - new business models vs valuation criteria
> > - believers in sweeping changes through internet, vs belief there ain't
> > anything new
> > - herds fleeing from group of stocks to other
> > - etc
> >
> > A few weeks ago, saying I am moving out of stocks, I got laughed at.
> > Well I exited too early admittedly, but now I don't hear anything
> > anymore about why I should remain long. instead, many are pondering how
> > far down we could go, targets, short selling opportunities etc. I know I
> > am certainly too early again, but I know it never comes as everyone
> > expects. My view is we'll have neither the clean crash nor the clean run
> > back up, we'll have a nice saloon door. Too many have made (big) money
> > in too short a time. The market being the best device ever invented to
> > separate portfolios from their cash, I presume we are entering a period
> > where it will remain wildly unpredictable without regular and long
> > enough trends, so that everyone will get hit no matter what they do.
> >
> > In my view, this is the time where you typically a/ pull out completely
> > or b/ follow your system religiously, hoping the drawdown won't be too
> > bad. In other words, this years profitability will be played out now,
> > measured by the amount of discipline one can retain in the face of
> > extreme and shifting emotions.
> >
> > Gwenn
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
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