|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
You are right about the volume for the last part of the move, but most
of the move had huge volume - and the count I am talking about is only
the S&P 500. Not the NASDAQ and not the Dow.
Steve
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 26, 2000 6:01 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] AN END OF HEDGING?
> In a message dated 3/26/00 2:35:29 PM Pacific Standard Time,
swp@xxxxxxxxxx
> writes:
> << Jim - This cannot (never say never, but very unlikely) be a b-wave
since
> the third wave of this move really should not have exceeded 1.618
times
> the first wave. It has to be a third wave of a five wave move. I
guess it
> could be an irregular b-wave for a mega drop, kind of like the top
in
> 1929, but I'll be darned if I'm going to compare and contrast with
the
> mega-chicken-littles and call for a 90% drop here. Not with
> demographics, etc., from l-t perspective. >>
> *********************
> Steve,...
>
> Thanks for the follow up. I will give this upmove until the 04-03
timeframe
> for completion of a Wave 4,...and Wave 5,..IF that is what's
forthcoming (I
> am not so sure). Two things suggest to me that Elliott analysis may
> not win out:
>
> 1. Usually retracement rallies occur on lighter volume,...whereas a
new
> upleg will start with expanding volume. Last week's NYSE volume of
5.12 Bill
> shares,...and NASDAQ volume of 8.45 Bill shares were lighest volumes
of past
> 4 weeks.
>
> 2. European markets tend to lead us at key turns. I have been beat
over the
> head in years past until I got religion on this. Europe has not kept
pace
> with
> the US rally off the early March low,...barely moving up in response
to the
> big
> leg up on Wednesday. My suspicion is that once again European
markets
> are leading us lower and we are close to a turn to the downside. Just
my
> personal perception.
>
> Sentiment is not constructive for another leg up here,...but I am
likely
> wrong and perhaps we will see additional upside before we head lower.
As
> mentioned in my previous post,..bigger picture I see more downside
risk than
> potential upside,..and am open minded for a decline into the mid-May
> timeframe. From there,..perhaps another nice upmove into September.
I am
> standing aside for now waiting for a lower risk setup,..etc.
Again,..thanks
> for the reply....have a good week.
>
> Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
|