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In a message dated 3/26/00 2:35:29 PM Pacific Standard Time, swp@xxxxxxxxxx
writes:
<< Jim - This cannot (never say never, but very unlikely) be a b-wave since
the third wave of this move really should not have exceeded 1.618 times
the first wave. It has to be a third wave of a five wave move. I guess it
could be an irregular b-wave for a mega drop, kind of like the top in
1929, but I'll be darned if I'm going to compare and contrast with the
mega-chicken-littles and call for a 90% drop here. Not with
demographics, etc., from l-t perspective. >>
*********************
Steve,...
Thanks for the follow up. I will give this upmove until the 04-03 timeframe
for completion of a Wave 4,...and Wave 5,..IF that is what's forthcoming (I
am not so sure). Two things suggest to me that Elliott analysis may
not win out:
1. Usually retracement rallies occur on lighter volume,...whereas a new
upleg will start with expanding volume. Last week's NYSE volume of 5.12 Bill
shares,...and NASDAQ volume of 8.45 Bill shares were lighest volumes of past
4 weeks.
2. European markets tend to lead us at key turns. I have been beat over the
head in years past until I got religion on this. Europe has not kept pace
with
the US rally off the early March low,...barely moving up in response to the
big
leg up on Wednesday. My suspicion is that once again European markets
are leading us lower and we are close to a turn to the downside. Just my
personal perception.
Sentiment is not constructive for another leg up here,...but I am likely
wrong and perhaps we will see additional upside before we head lower. As
mentioned in my previous post,..bigger picture I see more downside risk than
potential upside,..and am open minded for a decline into the mid-May
timeframe. From there,..perhaps another nice upmove into September. I am
standing aside for now waiting for a lower risk setup,..etc. Again,..thanks
for the reply....have a good week.
Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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