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In a message dated 3/17/00 3:42:43 PM Pacific Standard Time,
craig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< With this it'll be interesting to see of the Dow fails at about the 50%
retrace of the last move or around 10800 area before the "C"wave begins. This
is just what one source says about B WAVES and Volume pattterns, as i
personally thought B waves were on lighter volume as a rule, i just didnt
read all the rule at one time i guess :)
>>
Craig,...
Actually the "B" wave logic was not at the heart of my expectation for a
turn here (the reason I originally mentioned B Wave in the post),...more
importantly the following factors influenced my thought process:
1. Fri 03-17 was 17 mkt days from 02-23, was 17 mkt days from
01-28, was 17 mkt days from 01-04 (key low),...etc. Other methods
indicate likely market turn on 03-17 to 03-20.
2. Mon 03-20 is FULL MOON and VERNAL EQUINOX. I am no expert on
astro,...but simplistically am alert to pivots coinciding with New and Full
Moons,..as well as solstices,..equinox,..etc. Just another suggestion to
be alert for a turning point of significance. (Any comment on significance
astro wise for 03-20 ?,....Bob ?,...anyone else ?)
3. Sentiment not constructive for trending move.
Daily Indx Put/Call ratio .897 on 3-17, frimly at market topping,..
and Weekly CBOE P/C (out of Barron's Market Lab) last week
0.35,..this week 0.37,...both close to 0.34 topping level.
4. IBD Short Interest ratio on Wedn 03-15 fell to a 5 yr low of 3.53 days,
now less than half of it's 5 yr high of 7.20. Chris Cadbury's (still
bearish)
market letter notes prolonged massive short covering is sign of start of
extended downmove.
5. Europe has not kept up with U.S. short covering inspired rally,..watch
Europe for sign of move lower,..as European mkts often leads the U.S. at
key turn points. (In particular, I'm watching pricey Japanese net stocks
Softbank and NTT Dokomo,...and Japan is closed for trading on Monday 03-20).
Again,..for the Dow and S&P500,...these factors combined with short-covering
inspired retracement to 50% of decline level combined to suggest a "B" wave
scenario with downside or trading range a more likely scenario than a
trending
move higher.
Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
P.S. Also note today's Barron's (03-20) cover story "Burning Fast" likely to
weigh on net and techs in general Monday. Watch for key short term low
03-21 to 03-22. And FOMC meets on 03-21.
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