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Anything computer related would be hard hit since a lot of equipment is
manufactured in Taiwan. Prices on virtually everything would jump
immediately which would kindle inflation fears (since PC technology
ISN'T "volatile" like oil & food). Depending on the length of the
conflict, oil deliveries in that area would likely be affected also.
Someone on another list raised the possibility that were this to happen,
other unstable countries/situations might take advantage of the
diversion to make their own moves. For instance, North Korea invades
South Korea. India strikes out at Pakistan. An Arab country initiates
at attack on Israel, etc.
And who knows, does Taiwan have any nuclear weapons? Hard to believe
that they don't...
JW
-----Original Message-----
From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Earl Adamy
Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 9:53 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: remember Saddam
Very interesting and not so outrageous! Does anyone really expect that
a) this administration is competent in foreign policy or b) this
administration would tell the truth if China were preparing for war?
OOH, there are a zillion non-government satellites up there gathering
information so it's reasonable to expect that a major buildup along
China's shore would not go unnoticed. Might we find confirmation in
other markets? What commodities does China export or import heavily
where informed buyers or sellers might stockpile commodities in
expectation of trouble?
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gwenael Gautier" <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 17, 2000 9:13 AM
Subject: [RT] remember Saddam
> This is not for mechanical traders. This is not for people without
> imagination. This is not for people who have t all figured out. It is
> for the respectuous of the major forces against which we are not much.
>
> Looking again at the current situation of extreme nervousness, it
> reminds me of 1990. Back then we were surfing the red chips wave, the
> end of the cold wart, the dawn of a new world order where capitalism
> had won over communism. Stocks rode high, sentiment was unabashingly
> positive, dip buying was the thing to do, valuations were out.
>
> Then came Saddam. He told everyone what he would do: invade Koweit.
> People said "yeah, gimme a break".
> Then came August 2nd: The world rubbed eyes to see the unimaginable:
> Saddam did invade Koweit. Oh shit! Now the markets weren't too sure.
> Initially it wasn't so bad, a small drop, the market took it almost in
> stride. Come on, this is the new world!
> We all remember how it continued: markets dropping relentlessly,
> recession and then war.
>
> Replace new world with new economy, and you have todays markets, and
> todays sentiment.
> Replace Saddam, with China and you have????
>
> China is saber rattling once again, like many times before. But they
> won't attack for real won't they? Gimme a break!
>
> Well but if they do still? I tell you, markets would be in a
deeeeeeeeep
> shit.
>
> May be time to take some (taiwan made) chips off.
> :-)
>
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