|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=windows-1252" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2722.2800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>There have been numerous false wedge breakouts in the bonds over the last
10 days or so. First it goes through the wedge the way it should, then returns
and goes back the other way. This has been a range-bound market. When
viewed in a longer term perspective, we have been in a correction since the 24th
of the move up from the Jan low. The fact that the correction has managed to
hold in such a tight range is bullish, however it is unlikely that the
correction is complete in time - in fact the 62% time retracement of the rally
happens to fall on Mar 17, just 2 days before the next Fed meeting. Bonds have
recently been tending to begin significant moves a couple of days ahead of Fed
announcements.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Unless equities take a major dive, I believe bonds will remain in the
recent trading range for most of the week. I see no reason why the bonds would
do anything other than rally on a major move down in stocks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>t-bondtrader</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A
href="mailto:serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx";
title=serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx>serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, March 13, 2000 4:02
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Doji Sandwich on the
S&P</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A particular pattern which I have found very
helpful on the T-Bonds is what I call a Doji Sandwich. When it
appears on a pivot point or against a trend line, it more times than not
signifies a change in trend - and usually a strong one.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Last week saw the new June Contract on the
S&P end with the first two bars of the Doji Sandwich and if it completes
the third bar today, Monday, then I think there could be a significant change
drop in prices - certainly down to the trend line, if not much further
down. (See the attached GIF file)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At the moment the Bonds have been running in
contrary fashion to the S&P, but on Friday it broke out of a wedge, but
the bar closed well off the lows. If the Spoo goes down, then the
Boos should go up - that is until there is a major move down with stocks,
which will then probably see the Bonds move down too.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As I write, the S&P is 15 points down, and
the T-Bonds have come back to Friday's opening - thus completing the
downthrust to take the market back into the wedge from which it (falsely?)
broke out. That is, again, normally a good pattern for an upward
movement - so perhaps the wedge has a little further to go before the real
breakout.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Have a good week</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bill Eykyn<BR><A
href="http://www.t-bondtrader.com";>www.t-bondtrader.com</A><BR>"Learn to read
the tape"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Mar 13 06:41:07 2000
Return-Path: <listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from mail.thetrellis.net ([208.179.56.11])
by purebytes.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with SMTP id FAA29453
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 13 Mar 2000 05:50:06 -0800
Received: from REALTRADERS.COM
([208.179.56.198])
by mail.thetrellis.net; Mon, 13 Mar 2000 05:50:23 -0800
Received: from hawk.prod.itd.earthlink.net by realtraders.com
with SMTP (MDaemon.v3.0.0.R)
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 13 Mar 2000 05:43:34 -0800
Received: from ibm (1Cust154.tnt1.blythe.ca.da.uu.net [63.25.4.154])
by hawk.prod.itd.earthlink.net (8.9.3/8.9.3) with SMTP id FAA16390
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 13 Mar 2000 05:46:56 -0800 (PST)
Message-ID: <005101bf8cf2$9a3c98a0$9eddfea9@xxx>
From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <24.2477b0d.25fdafce@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: opinions
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2000 05:46:57 -0800
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: multipart/mixed;
boundary="----=_NextPart_000_004E_01BF8CAF.8B83CF60"
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Return-Path: bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDRcpt-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
X-MDMailing-List: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDSend-Notifications-To: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Reply-To: bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Status:
Per Ben's request for a 19 day moving average of the new highs minus new
lows. It is still running negative and his health index is coming off
shortterm overbought. The 19 day xma of new highs minus new lows did form a
higher low last week, but since the intermediate term price trend is still
down, this divergence a sell rather than a buy, at least for today anyway.
If the intermediate term trend had been up and this divergence occured on a
correction it might have been a buy.
bR
----- Original Message -----
From: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
To: <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 12, 2000 6:43 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: opinions
> In a message dated 3/12/00 3:46:13 PM Eastern Standard Time,
> bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> << There does appear to be a bit of an argument for the resumption of the
bull
> in that the end of day cumulative volume has made a higher low while the
DOW
> made a lower low over the recent two week period at lines A and B on the
> giffer. Same is true for New Highs minus New Lows. It is nice to have
> such a divergence if a pivot is at hand.
>
> BR
> >>
> hi
> what about the health index and new hi minus new low and their 19 day
exp
> m/a??
> (if you have the time)
>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\19NHNL.gif"
|