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Then there are the systems that are never back tested because the developer
doesn't care what happened in the past, only what is about to happen. those
systems work also and never have to be fitted. Ira
Phil Lane wrote:
> I look for a couple of top-secret but relatively obvious patterns on the
> daily charts -
> there are many ways to measure the statistics, but for starters you need to
> build a system for backtesting. Enter with whatever pattern, and then exit
> after x number of days. Then you could say "there's a whatever percent
> chance that the market will be higher or lower x days following this setup".
>
> With sufficient refinement you can get statistics on the drawdowns, runups,
> etc. Obviously it will depend on the exits as well. The market will respond
> differently depending on which setup is happening, so each will have it's
> optimal exit technique.
>
> boneheaded,
> phil
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: BobR <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 6:28 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Gen:Adv Dcl FFt
>
> > What are those three things and what specific statistics do you derive
> from
> > them?
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Phil Lane" <patterntrader@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 6:23 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Gen:Adv Dcl FFt
> >
> >
> > > I see endless different esoteric methods presented here for predicting
> the
> > > market. There's a new one every 5 minutes. Do you guys actually look at
> > all
> > > this different stuff? How on earth do you decide what to believe???
> > >
> > > Personally I look at just 3 very specific things, and even that gets
> > pretty
> > > confusing sometimes! But at least I can determine the statistics.
> > >
> > > rgds phil
> > > http://www.patterntrader.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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