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I look for a couple of top-secret but relatively obvious patterns on the
daily charts -
there are many ways to measure the statistics, but for starters you need to
build a system for backtesting. Enter with whatever pattern, and then exit
after x number of days. Then you could say "there's a whatever percent
chance that the market will be higher or lower x days following this setup".
With sufficient refinement you can get statistics on the drawdowns, runups,
etc. Obviously it will depend on the exits as well. The market will respond
differently depending on which setup is happening, so each will have it's
optimal exit technique.
boneheaded,
phil
----- Original Message -----
From: BobR <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 6:28 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Gen:Adv Dcl FFt
> What are those three things and what specific statistics do you derive
from
> them?
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Phil Lane" <patterntrader@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 6:23 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Gen:Adv Dcl FFt
>
>
> > I see endless different esoteric methods presented here for predicting
the
> > market. There's a new one every 5 minutes. Do you guys actually look at
> all
> > this different stuff? How on earth do you decide what to believe???
> >
> > Personally I look at just 3 very specific things, and even that gets
> pretty
> > confusing sometimes! But at least I can determine the statistics.
> >
> > rgds phil
> > http://www.patterntrader.com
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
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