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<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>John,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>You
may want to take a look at the attached gif. It shows the symmetrical declines
(so far) into the 8-98 and 2-00 lows. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>This
low, however, does not appear to be symmetrical in time to the 98 low. If
patterns that began in 1990 continue, this is not likely to be the low for
2000.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>My
projection is that price and time should converge in October at the ascending
trendline.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Stan</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
class=110105005-29022000><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2> </FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN class=110105005-29022000><FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2> </FONT></SPAN>-----Original
Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> G.John
Boggio<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, February 28, 2000 5:30 PM<BR><B>To:</B>
rogersj1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Lboggio@xxxxxxx; InTheHole2@xxxxxxx; Boggio1@xxxxxxx;
mcboggio@xxxxxxxxx; jcorn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; jadigo@xxxxxxx; JBing@xxxxxxxxx;
ndangio@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx; boggio@xxxxxxxxx; dsbrenner@xxxxxxxxxxxx;
jsemmons@xxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Mkt: SymWave Analysis of S&P
Cash 2/28/00<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"><FONT
size=2><B>Realtraders,<BR><BR> Yesterday I replied to Gitanshu Bush's
analysis regarding the NDX using symmetry wave analysis.
Unfortunately, I failed to notice that Gitanshu's declines were based on a
closing basis whereas SymWave uses intraday highs and lows in its
calculations. Therefore, please disregard most of what I said
yesterday until I have a chance to view the data on an actually high/low
basis....sorry.<BR><BR>For your enjoyment, I have presented below my SymWave
analysis on the S&P 500 Cash dating back to the '87 crash. Hope
you find it interesting. For those wanting to know more about Symmetry
Wave, just let me know and I will send you a Word document describing some
of its aspects in greater detail....don't worry, I am not selling
anything.<BR><BR>Thanks again,<BR>John Boggio<BR>PS Depending on the number
of requests, I will probably do a bulk mailing or just send it to the Forum
for your review.<BR><BR>+++++++++++++++++++++++++++<BR><BR>Let me now update
you on the current market, going all the way back to 1987: As for the 1987
decline, the S&P 500 Cash market measured a high of 338 on 8/25/87 and a
low at 217 on 10/20/87. This decline is 121 points. Since this
market has made such a great advance over the last decade and the 121 point
decline is not that great in today’s terms, we need to convert this
decline into a percentage basis. Which calculates to a 36% decline,
+/- 20% or a 30% to 43% target zone. <BR><BR></FONT><FONT
face="Times New Roman, Times" size=2>Now for the 1990 decline, our high was
at 370 on 7/16/90 and our low was at 295 on 10/11/90. This measures 75
pts but upon conversion to a percentage basis we get a 20.3% decline.
As you can see, this decline did not fall with the 1987 target zone
therefore, a new internal wave is formed. Its target zone for future
declines will be 20% of the 20.3% decline or 16.2% to 24.4%. Again,
let's move forward to the 1994 high at 482 on 2/3/94 and a low at 435 on
3/31/94. It measured 47 pts or 9.75%. On a % basis, the decline
will set a target zone of 7.8% to 11.7% from the highs in the S&P
500. Hence forming a third subset on internal wave structures since
the 1987 crash. <BR><BR>When we advance to the 1996 pullback, we had a high
set at 681 on 5/23/96 and a low at 606 on 7/16/96. This magnitude
decline measured 11.01% and FALLS WITHIN the 1994 wave structure when adding
the leeway buffer….a SYMMETRICAL MATCH and buy signal is issued. Once
the market completed its decline (down 11.01%), the market ultimately
rallied to a new high on 2/19/97 at 818. Once that high was formed,
the market again rolled over and on 4/14/97 corrected to a low of 734.
This 1997 decline equaled 10.27% and AGAIN found symmetrical support based
on the original 1994 Wave structure, another continuing buy signal is
issued.<BR><BR>Later in 1997 the market once again rallied to a high of 983
on 10/8/97 with a subsequent low of 855 on 10/28/97. When you
calculate this drop, you get a 13.10% decline which is just slightly greater
than the original 1994 wave structure which measured 9.75% plus the leeway
of 1.95 percentage points for a total of 11.70%. Therefore,
technically a failure of the 1994 wave structure occurred by a margin of
1.32%. Unfortunately, that failure resulted in an intraday sell signal
that proved inaccurate because by the close, the index rallied 75 points
from it low and subsequently formed a bottom that propelled the market to
new highs once again. Upon looking back at this event, I would now
tend to group this October 1997 wave structure WITHIN the 1994 subset of
waves that I illustrated above. Thus making that structure an 8 wave
count, where 1994 was Wave 1-2, 1996 was Wave 3-4, February 1997 was Wave
5-6 and October 1997 was Wave 7-8. However, no new buy signal would
have been issued due to the overextension of the structure or the fact that
it declined greater than the 1994 original wave even though we can now
categorize it within that structure (more on this shortly).<BR><BR>Once the
October ’97 low was formed, the market rallied to another new high on
7/20/98 at 1191. From that high the market began to correct and on
8/5/98 formed a low at 1057. This decline AGAIN measured 11.25% and
symmetrically matched all previous declines since 1994 as one would
expect. However, within the Symmetry Wave trading method, one comes to
understand that as a wave structure matures past a wave 6 count, the ensuing
wave structure become overextended and less reliable in maintaining its
stability. In this case, the 1994, 9.75% wave structure is now at a 10
wave count and would be considered extremely overextended. As such, no
buy signal would have been generated (for that matter, no buy signal would
have been generated for the October ’97 decline either).
Following the 8/5/98 low, the <U>market failed to rally for several
weeks</U> and then on 8/27/97 the index decisively broke below the 1994
symmetrical support leeway zone and clearly issued a sell signal.<BR><BR>Now
that the ’94 wave structure is completed, we must then look to the
previously larger wave which was the 1990 Wave structure which measured
20.0%. Well, guess what…the 1998 high to low measured 22.5%,
with the low being formed on 10/8/98 at a level of 923 (923/1191 = 22.5%)
and symmetrical matches the 1990 wave structure. Therefore, in
today’s terms, the 1990 wave structure is at a 4 wave count which
issued a <U>major buy signal</U> at that time.<BR><BR>Again moving forward
from the October ’98 low, the market has formed an internal subset
wave structure with a high at 1420 on 7/20/99 and a low at 1234 on
10/18/99. This decline measured 13.10% +/-2.62% for a total leeway
of 10.48 15.72%, and would represent an original wave structure
which has yet to be match on a symmetrical basis.
<BR><BR></FONT>Finally, the market reached an all-time high of 1478 on
1/3/2000. As of 2/28/00, the S&P 500 has declined to a level of
1325 which measures 10.35% or just outside the anticipated targeted
symmetrical decline. Therefore, as I write this, I am looking to be a
buyer of the S&P if I can get a little bit more of a decline in this
index…somewhere around the 1300 - 1320 level in the Cash
market. <BR><BR>If this were to occur, a new buy signal would take
place at that point. If no new highs are made, one would set a
protective sell stop below the market at approximately the 1235 level on the
Cash market. Personally, I believe we are very close to establishing a
short to intermediate term low in the Dow and S&P 500. The ensuing
rally could last until May/June 2000 at which point the summer months could
prove very troublesome for all US indices.<BR><BR>Just some
thoughts,<BR>John Boggio</B><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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