|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><html>
<font size=2><b>Realtraders,<br>
<br>
Yesterday I replied to Gitanshu Bush's analysis regarding the NDX
using symmetry wave analysis. Unfortunately, I failed to notice
that Gitanshu's declines were based on a closing basis whereas SymWave
uses intraday highs and lows in its calculations. Therefore, please
disregard most of what I said yesterday until I have a chance to view the
data on an actually high/low basis....sorry.<br>
<br>
For your enjoyment, I have presented below my SymWave analysis on the
S&P 500 Cash dating back to the '87 crash. Hope you find it
interesting. For those wanting to know more about Symmetry Wave,
just let me know and I will send you a Word document describing some of
its aspects in greater detail....don't worry, I am not selling
anything.<br>
<br>
Thanks again,<br>
John Boggio<br>
PS Depending on the number of requests, I will probably do a bulk mailing
or just send it to the Forum for your review.<br>
<br>
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++<br>
<br>
Let me now update you on the current market, going all the way back to
1987: As for the 1987 decline, the S&P 500 Cash market measured a
high of 338 on 8/25/87 and a low at 217 on 10/20/87. This decline
is 121 points. Since this market has made such a great advance over
the last decade and the 121 point decline is not that great in today’s
terms, we need to convert this decline into a percentage basis.
Which calculates to a 36% decline, +/- 20% or a 30% to 43% target
zone. <br>
<br>
</font><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=2>Now for the 1990
decline, our high was at 370 on 7/16/90 and our low was at 295 on
10/11/90. This measures 75 pts but upon conversion to a percentage
basis we get a 20.3% decline. As you can see, this decline did not
fall with the 1987 target zone therefore, a new internal wave is formed.
Its target zone for future declines will be 20% of the 20.3% decline or
16.2% to 24.4%. Again, let's move forward to the 1994 high at 482
on 2/3/94 and a low at 435 on 3/31/94. It measured 47 pts or
9.75%. On a % basis, the decline will set a target zone of 7.8% to
11.7% from the highs in the S&P 500. Hence forming a third
subset on internal wave structures since the 1987 crash. <br>
<br>
When we advance to the 1996 pullback, we had a high set at 681 on 5/23/96
and a low at 606 on 7/16/96. This magnitude decline measured 11.01%
and FALLS WITHIN the 1994 wave structure when adding the leeway buffer….a
SYMMETRICAL MATCH and buy signal is issued. Once the market completed its
decline (down 11.01%), the market ultimately rallied to a new high on
2/19/97 at 818. Once that high was formed, the market again rolled
over and on 4/14/97 corrected to a low of 734. This 1997 decline
equaled 10.27% and AGAIN found symmetrical support based on the original
1994 Wave structure, another continuing buy signal is issued.<br>
<br>
Later in 1997 the market once again rallied to a high of 983 on 10/8/97
with a subsequent low of 855 on 10/28/97. When you calculate this
drop, you get a 13.10% decline which is just slightly greater than the
original 1994 wave structure which measured 9.75% plus the leeway of 1.95
percentage points for a total of 11.70%. Therefore, technically a
failure of the 1994 wave structure occurred by a margin of 1.32%.
Unfortunately, that failure resulted in an intraday sell signal that
proved inaccurate because by the close, the index rallied 75 points from
it low and subsequently formed a bottom that propelled the market to new
highs once again. Upon looking back at this event, I would now tend
to group this October 1997 wave structure WITHIN the 1994 subset of waves
that I illustrated above. Thus making that structure an 8 wave
count, where 1994 was Wave 1-2, 1996 was Wave 3-4, February 1997 was Wave
5-6 and October 1997 was Wave 7-8. However, no new buy signal would
have been issued due to the overextension of the structure or the fact
that it declined greater than the 1994 original wave even though we can
now categorize it within that structure (more on this shortly).<br>
<br>
Once the October ’97 low was formed, the market rallied to another new
high on 7/20/98 at 1191. From that high the market began to correct
and on 8/5/98 formed a low at 1057. This decline AGAIN measured
11.25% and symmetrically matched all previous declines since 1994 as one
would expect. However, within the Symmetry Wave trading method, one
comes to understand that as a wave structure matures past a wave 6 count,
the ensuing wave structure become overextended and less reliable in
maintaining its stability. In this case, the 1994, 9.75% wave
structure is now at a 10 wave count and would be considered extremely
overextended. As such, no buy signal would have been generated (for
that matter, no buy signal would have been generated for the October ’97
decline either). Following the 8/5/98 low, the <u>market failed to
rally for several weeks</u> and then on 8/27/97 the index decisively
broke below the 1994 symmetrical support leeway zone and clearly issued a
sell signal.<br>
<br>
Now that the ’94 wave structure is completed, we must then look to the
previously larger wave which was the 1990 Wave structure which measured
20.0%. Well, guess what…the 1998 high to low measured 22.5%, with
the low being formed on 10/8/98 at a level of 923 (923/1191 = 22.5%) and
symmetrical matches the 1990 wave structure. Therefore, in today’s
terms, the 1990 wave structure is at a 4 wave count which issued a
<u>major buy signal</u> at that time.<br>
<br>
Again moving forward from the October ’98 low, the market has formed an
internal subset wave structure with a high at 1420 on 7/20/99 and a low
at 1234 on 10/18/99. This decline measured 13.10% +/-2.62% for a
total leeway of 10.48 15.72%, and would represent an original
wave structure which has yet to be match on a symmetrical basis.
<br>
<br>
</font>Finally, the market reached an all-time high of 1478 on
1/3/2000. As of 2/28/00, the S&P 500 has declined to a level of
1325 which measures 10.35% or just outside the anticipated targeted
symmetrical decline. Therefore, as I write this, I am looking to be
a buyer of the S&P if I can get a little bit more of a decline in
this index…somewhere around the 1300 - 1320 level in the Cash
market. <br>
<br>
If this were to occur, a new buy signal would take place at that
point. If no new highs are made, one would set a protective sell
stop below the market at approximately the 1235 level on the Cash
market. Personally, I believe we are very close to establishing a
short to intermediate term low in the Dow and S&P 500. The
ensuing rally could last until May/June 2000 at which point the summer
months could prove very troublesome for all US indices.<br>
<br>
Just some thoughts,<br>
John Boggio</b><br>
</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Feb 28 16:52:03 2000
Return-Path: <listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from mail.thetrellis.net ([208.179.56.11])
by purebytes.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with SMTP id QAA22189
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 28 Feb 2000 16:47:48 -0800
Received: from REALTRADERS.COM
([208.179.56.198])
by mail.thetrellis.net; Mon, 28 Feb 2000 16:48:24 -0800
Received: from mta3.snfc21.pbi.net by realtraders.com
with SMTP (MDaemon.v2.8.5.0.R)
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Mon, 28 Feb 2000 16:42:12 -0800
Received: from pacbell.net ([63.198.195.93])
by mta3.snfc21.pbi.net (Sun Internet Mail Server sims.3.5.1999.09.16.21.57.p8)
with ESMTP id <0FQO00AAW21LX9@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> for
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Mon, 28 Feb 2000 16:44:10 -0800 (PST)
Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 16:44:46 -0800
From: Ron Cernokus <roncer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Historical Charts
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Message-id: <38BB167D.6C7632E@xxxxxxxxxxx>
MIME-version: 1.0
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win95; I)
Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-transfer-encoding: 7bit
X-Accept-Language: en
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Return-Path: roncer@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDMailing-List: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDSend-Notifications-To: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Reply-To: roncer@xxxxxxxxxxx
Status:
RTs,
Looking for a DOW chart of the 1800s. Anyboby know of a site that has
historical
charts? Any ideas appreciated.
Ron
|