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I buy some of the new economy arguments and see huge productivity
opportunities which will continue to drive down costs, however the new
economy has also opened some very dangerous pits which could swallow the
whole thing. Chief among them is debt, debt, debt as far as the economy
can see. Another is the conversion from manufacturing economy to service
economy which will not serve us well in a major down turn.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <Daniel.Goncharoff@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, February 27, 2000 4:20 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: [Fwd: Nasdaq Bubble... Something to consider]
> Sorry, I just don't buy the 'new economy' argument yet. The marginal
> pricing issue has little relevance to an entertainment product that
> derives its revenue from advertising, like YHOO. It is an issue of
fads,
> combined with the difficulty of evaluating the value of net
advertising.
> More people on EBAY is only to my advantage if there are more sellers,
> and I am a buyer. More buyers means more people competing against me,
> and that's bad. And the success of Windows had little to do with the
> ability to swap files- - it had to do with the economic benefit to
> business buyers of the 'Wintel' system, where box makers were
competing
> with each other to provide the most cost effective box, over the
> exclusivity of Apple, where you had to buy an expensive box to get the
> OS.
>
> It is far from clear that the advertising/data mining based business
> model can make any money in the long term. If it can't, a lot of stock
> market value vanishes. EBAY's intermediation model has a reasonable
shot
> of succeeding if it can maintain a good balance between buyers and
> sellers.
>
> JMHO
> DanG
>
>
>
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