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During any market whether the indicators are rising or falling, the Dow,
S&P, NSD, XOI or any of the others, some are in bear markets and some
are in bull markets. Could you say that oil is in a bear market, yet
CHV is at a 52 week low. While tech stocks were on a raging rally the
food group was heading into the sewer, look at CAG and ADM, and the
grains are at ,or near, all time lows. On an inflation weighted bases,
gold is selling at a price lower then the $32-$35 support price the
government had during the 20s, 30s and 40s. Yet if you price gold in Yen
it has been rallying over the past few years. Bull or bear is all in
perspective and not in numbers.
Some read the paper, listen to CNBC, get reports and guru analysis, I
believe that if it is published, it is already in the price. Those that
can afford the research, put there money where their research tells
them. I just go along for the ride.
I don't care what the Dow is doing if I am trading the S&P or the OEX.
I don't care what AMZN on INTC is doing if I am trading G, DIS, CMGI. I
only care about what will make me money or what will lose me money.
What will increase my risk and what will reduce my risk. I don't care
what Abelson says, or Maria or the Wall street journal. The only thing
that will make or lose money for me is movement in price, not someone
else's jaw or pen. My standard rule is don't read the paper, listen to
the news or take advise from aother traders when I am trading. It is
all in the chart.
I was in the pits trading on that great day when Granville came out and
said that the bear had started. The market opened up down 45 points,
that was a great deal at the time, about 450 today, and after the first
hour it just rocketed up to close higher. How much effect has
Greenspan's jaw boning had? Or a governments declaration that it is
going to support its currency? None, in the longer run. If you have a
system that works, use it to its best advantage. Learn to trade both
sides of the market. Don't fall in love with your decisions. Trading is
a business, not a guessing game. Like any other business, you have a
business plan, and you follow it. A traders business plans change a lot
more frequently depending upon his time frame of trading and the ever
changing items that he/she trades. Good luck and good hunting, Ira.
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