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I used to believe the idea that when everybody starts talking about a crash
it can't happen or that when no-one is it must be close. It certainly is
nice to think that way because most of the time you get the enjoyment of
feeling superior to others at the same time as being "proved" right (while
the market rises).
So a few years ago I did a bit of research into the media coverage of late
1986/87 financial markets. I looked mainly at the UK's Investor's Chronicle
weekly magazine - a kind of Old World Barron's I guess.
I got every issue from the library and took an afternoon just going through
the main columns and commentaries that dealt with general market conditions.
I was suprised...the overall theme for the whole time was a global market
crash. Almost everyone either writing a column or reported in the magazine
seemed to expect some kind of big correction at some point soon (before ye
1987). And they were getting increasingly bearish as time went on.
So, for me I expect a crash won't happen until everyone reporting on or
talking about financial markets on this and other lists get increasingly
bearish. Ideally CNBC should do a week long special on where to put your
money to protect it from a crash. That IS a sell.
:-)
R
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