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I too am pretty well versed in Elliott Wave Theory. When I first discovered Prechter back in '86,
he immediately became my hero, my guru, my idol. I read his first book EWT, that seminal work, over and over again, maybe 10 times. I can deny neither his genius nor his contributions to market analysis. But I am sorry to say that I have lost all my respect and am totally at a loss about and can not comprehend his attitude, his behavior and his irrational and totally ridiculous position since the crash of '87. The guy is doing everything that he told everybody not to do in his own book! He is breaking and bending all his own rules, disregarding all the evidence and descriptions he so masterfully and elegantly put forth in his own work!! It is just so incomprehensible and absurd! Now, every accomplished technical analyst, let alone somebody who has mastered EW and Fibonacci, can occasionally nail tops and bottoms to the day, even to the hour; I don't think that is extremely special. But for these guys (Prechter, Eliades, and the rest of the perma bears), every single intermediate top since the '87 bottom has been THE top, the final, terminal, fatal, end-of-the-universe type of deal. Every single big/violent downdraft was immediately followed by ads in media screaming "Well, heh hee, the end is here and we told you so, now call us to find out what to do when the Dow goes to 1200 first, then 400 and eventually 45 !! ". And of course, there is also that infamous book that came out back in '95 "The Turn of the Tidal Wave" or whatever. Well, we are still waiting to get drowned. Fifth of the fifth for the fiftyfifth time, gimme a break, how many points it will take to admit that one's wrong, 55,000?? Forget all the fancy EWT, Fibo, Gann, cycles, whatever, the calls and the "analysis" these clowns push forward doesn't even pass the common sense test and flies in the face of most simple, basic, rudimentary, and elementary technical analysis and/or chart reading. It is a tragi-comical situation, but at the same time it also is very irresponsible, shameless and unscrupulous I think. I am sure all this garbage is still cworry.
Best regards & happy trading
Levent Erbora
-----Original Message-----
From: swp [SMTP:swp@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, February 14, 2000 8:22 PM
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Jim Stack in Barron's
I guess being an Elliottican, and knowing Bob Prechter a bit, makes me a
bit sensitive to such statements. I agree 100% that Bob has been way off
on the nature of the stock market's declines, but you should also know
that though the degree was wrong, he nailed the top in 1998 to the day,
as well as the start of the correction in the summer of 1999. I know
that he has been looking for a crash forever, and I do not know why he
does not see a different wave count. Last I heard, he was looking for
Dow 13,000, by the way, although that was in mid-January.
Several other Elliotticians that I know believe that the Dow has topped.
I am less sure, but the next 30% move in the Dow, IMO, is down and not
up. For now, I am guardedly bullish, from slightly lower levels.
As for a crash, if you read Alan Greenspan's comments, he is concerned
about the risk of one too (he has several times opined that the stock
market chart looks a lot like every other bubble that there has ever
been).
Steve Poser
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: Levent Erbora <erbora@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, February 14, 2000 7:36 PM
Subject: [RT] RE: Jim Stack in Barron's
Jim has discovered one of my favorite indicators :-)
Not only that, but when one of these dinosaurs get excited enough to
wake up from their hibernation and scrape up enough money from whatever
is left of their struggling businesses to cough up for some quarter-page
advertising in financial media, in a desperate and shameless last-ditch,
one-more-time-and-maybe-this-time-I'll-nail-it attempt............boy,
is that a bottom or a bottom !! :-)))
Prechter and Eliades get the top honors. Don't forget the other clowns,
P.Q. Wall and Eric Hadik.
Happy trading,
Levent Erbora
-----Original Message-----
From: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx [SMTP:Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, February 13, 2000 4:36 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Jim Stack in Barron's
Whenever there is a good setback for stocks
I keep an eye out for one of the remaining
perma-bears (Eliades, Precter, Stack, etc) to
be featured on CNBC or in the media,... as
their appearance tends to coincide with key lows.
Notice on today's Barron's (page 3) in Ableson's
column...the work of Jim Stack "the estimable
proprietor of InvesTech Research" is mentioned.
Stack has been bearish for a very long time,...
reference to his work here is suggestive to me
that a near term low is likely.
Any comments appreciated.
Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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