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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Please reference the Word document "SP500
Weekly Update.doc" at my web address (<A
href="http://www.mindspring.com/~blee7/)">www.mindspring.com/~blee7/)</A> for a
few minor corrections/additions to my previous post. Be sure to
Refresh/Reload my web address and charts to make them current for viewing. -
Brian Lee</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Feb 04 22:12:23 2000
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From: "Mindspring" <blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] S&P500 Followup/Followup
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2000 23:04:11 -0600
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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Whoops. Make that <A
href="http://www.mindspring.com/~blee7/";>www.mindspring.com/~blee7/</A> .
The parentheses at the end of the web address in the previous post messed up the
appropriate link. - Brian</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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From: "Mindspring" <blee7@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] Re: Commercial Done Yet?
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2000 23:59:46 -0600
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<P><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Norm,</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>As I have explained in several
previous posts, if anyone wishes to obtain results that mimic and/or exceed my
models, they need only to turn to companies like BioComSystems <A
href="http://www.biocompsystems.com/";>http://www.biocompsystems.com/</A> which
provides all details on how to build profitable models. With a 60 day money back
guarantee on your purchase, how can you lose? I'm sure there are other reputable
neural vendors out there besides BioComp as well. - Best wishes,
Brian</FONT></P>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Feb 04 22:42:13 2000
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From: "JW" <JW@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] MKT - Looking back into the future <g>
Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2000 22:33:22 -0800
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FYI...
JW
--------
http://www.pathfinder.com/money/wiseguy/archive/000204.html
Friday, February 4, 2000
Advance explanations for a crash
Why wait till the day of reckoning to find out what killed the bull market?
I've got a list of ready-made rationales.
By Walter Updegrave
Well, things were looking dicey for a while, what with the Y2K-noncompliant
Nasdaq losing nearly 5% in January. By February, though, everything was back
to normal, with stocks of all stripes climbing higher.
Still, we all know that one of these days "The Big One" (as Redd Foxx used
to say as he clutched his chest on Sanford and Son) will hit. Now I don't
have a clue when that will happen. But I do know that when TBO arrives, the
papers, the airwaves and the Net will be swarming with seers, sages and
savants all pointing fingers at various culprits and, of course, suggesting
that they saw it coming all along.
I've got a better idea. Let's beat the post-Crash rush to judgment, and get
our stories straight while there's still plenty of air in the bubble. I
offer six handy explanations for the crash that you can pull out at a
moment's notice to impress your friends. Then you can worry about more
important things—like, say, margin calls and all those early-retirement
plans.
THE BULL MARKET ENDED BECAUSE...
1. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan was too aggressive in raising interest rates,
leading jittery investors to conclude that inflation must be a more serious
threat than they thought. Facing higher rates and the specter of higher
inflation, investors fled stocks in droves, wreaking havoc with the Dow,
Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and, for reasons not entirely clear, the
Indianapolis 500.
2. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan wasn't aggressive enough in raising interest
rates, leading jittery investors to conclude that inflation would become a
more serious threat than they thought. Facing the specter of higher
inflation and higher rates, investors fled stocks in droves, wreaking havoc
with...(see ending above).
3. Investors, believing tech-stock prices had become grossly inflated,
rotated into health, financial and energy stocks in search of reasonable
valuations. Unfortunately, the massive shift of money into these sectors
made them overvalued too, triggering a furious chain reaction in which
investors raced like maniacs from industrials to consumer durables to
services to utilities and eventually back to tech in a fruitless search for
value. Dizzy from rotating, investors finally decided just to dump their
stocks and buy hog bellies and gold bullion.
4. Quarterly earnings for every company in the Standard & Poor's 500 index
came in exactly one cent above analysts' consensus estimates. Realizing
corporate earnings figures are even less reliable than presidential
candidates' campaign promises, U.S. investors decided they were better off
in markets where the rigging was upfront. So they pulled their dough out of
U.S. shares and poured it into emerging markets.
5. After years of losses, Amazon.com finally reported a two-cents-a-share
annual profit. Instead of heartening investors, however, it made them
realize that at this pace, it would take 872 years before Amazon could
generate enough earnings to justify its lofty stock price. As everyone from
neo-value investors to net-stock zealots began dumping Amazon, the selloff
spread to other dot-com companies, then tech firms and finally to any
company that uses technology.
6. It turned out that the doomsday forecast of Deutsche Bank economist Ed
"Y2Krackpot" Yardeni wasn't wrong, just premature. On January 1, 2001—the
first day of the real New Millennium—computers worldwide crashed just as Ed
predicted, sparking a full-scale collapse in economies and stock markets
around the world. Within minutes, Yardeni posted the following message in
bold type on his website:
"Nyah, nyah,
nyah, nyah
nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah, nyah."
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