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Results of lowrisk.com weekly sentiment survey....
find this to be useful from a contrary perspective,..etc.
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INVESTOR SENTIMENT SURVEY 01-25-2000
The survey was taken from 1/17 through 1/23.
Number of participants: 349
30 day outlook:
34% bullish, 47% previous week
40% bearish, 39% previous week
26% neutral, 14% previous week
Investor sentiment grew less bullish last week, with bullish
sentiment dropping from 47% to 34%. Most of the bulls moved to the
neutral camp, which rose from 14% to 26%. The bears only picked up
1% to end at 40%. With the Dow dropping more that 470 points last
week, we would expect the drop in bullish sentiment. However, it is
suprising that the bears could only pick up a single percentage
point. In addition, the median guess for the following week's Dow
close actually went *up* by 143 points! We read these numbers as
being troublesome for the bulls. It seems like there is very little
fear in this market, even when the Dow gives back 470 points in a
single week.
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01-26 note from Jim Pilliod:
On a shorter term basis,..the statement that complacency is high
appears correct,...consider for instance the recent daily INDEX Put/Call
ratio.
When we were smashed down on Monday 01-25 the ratio picked up nicely to
over 2.2 : 1.0 However,..with the minor bounce yesterday,..the INDEX ratio
slumped again to 1.1 : 1.0,....bascially at market topping levels. So I tend
to
agree with the statement above that relatively little fear exists at this
time,...and
there is a high degree of complacency.
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