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By weekly P/C does Barron's mean the Friday data or the summation of the
weeks put volume divided by the call volume? The attached chart uses a 5
day summation of the put volume divided by a 5 day summation of the call
volume. When the ratio turns up from below 0.5 thereabouts, it is bad news
for equities. Bad news could just be a consolidation into a horizontal
trading range or worse as in July of 1998. In '98 the critical level was
0.55 and in '99 it has dropped to .40 or lower which just shows how much
more activity there is this year with the increased call volume. The P/C
data in these charts is of the CBOE Total volumes, i.e. equities + indexes.
BobR
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2000 12:27 PM
Subject: [RT] Intermediate / Longer Term Top? for S&P500.... (Weekly CBOE
P/CRatio)
> I would be curious to other RT'rs response to this post.
>
> Following is the Weekly CBOE Put/Call (P/C) ratio which
> is posted in Barron's each week....I have found that for the equity
market
> "over belief" or greed exists when the ratio falls to 0.34 or
> below,...and conversely..."over feared" levels are indicated with
readings
> of 0.60
>
> I do not have a chart,...as my data is simply copied onto a
> notebook page,...here are the values for the past 52 weeks...
>
> WEEKLY CBOE PUT CALL RATIO
> (Barron's p. MW64 for 01-24-00 issue)
>
> date P/C S&P500 date P/C S&P500
> 01-21 .39 1441.36
> 01-14 .34 1465.16 07-16 .40 1418.78
> 01-07 .40 1441.49 07-09 .36 1403.28
> 12-31 .38 1469.26 07-02 .33 1391.22
> 12-23 .37 1458.34 06-25 .41 1315.31
> 12-17 .35 1421.06 06-18 .39 1342.84
> 12-10 .37 1417.04 06-11 .45 1293.67
> 12-03 .39 1433.30 06-04 .43 1327.75
> 11-26 .36 1416.62 05-28 .45 1301.82
> 11-19 .35 1422.00 05-21 .40 1330.29
> 11-12 .44 1396.10 05-14 .42 1337.80
> 11-05 .42 1370.22 05-07 .39 1345.00
> 10-29 .45 1362.93 04-30 .36 1335.18
> 10-22 .37 1301.65 04-23 .36 1356.80
> 10-15 .75 1247.41 04-16 .42 1318.78
> 10-08 .45 1336.02 04-09 .37 1348.35
> 10-01 .52 1282.82 04-02 .43 1293.77
> 09-24 .54 1277.36 03-26 .44 1282.80
> 09-17 .56 1335.35 03-19 .40 1299.29
> 09-10 .44 1351.66 03-12 .45 1294.59
> 09-03 .65 1357.16 03-05 .43 1275.46
> 08-27 .43 1348.27 02-26 .45 1238.33
> 08-20 .50 1336.61 02-19 .57 1239.16
> 08-13 .53 1327.68 02-12 .43 1230.14
> 08-06 .56 1300.33 02-05 .39 1239.39
> 07-30 .50 1328.72 01-29 .37 1279.64
> 07-23 .48 1356.94 01-22 .38 1225.56
>
> Weekly CBOE Put/Call Ratio.....
>
> 60:100 = 0.60 "Under believed".....implies fear
> 30:100 = 0.30 "Over believed"...... implies greed
>
> Personally,...I view readings of 0.34 or less as potential
> intermediate term market topping alert.....likely within
> 1-3 weeks of top of importance.
>
> NOTE:
> .33 reading 07-02 was within 2 weeks of 07-16 High
> .75 reading 10-15 nailed the 10-15 Low.
> .34 reading 01-14 ?? potential High in my mind.
>
> P.S. If anyone is aware of a url where a chart of the Weekly
> CBOE P/C ratio is posted I would be appreciative.
>
> Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
>
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