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Sigh... EVERYONE seems to be keying on having another 2-5 years of gains
based on the baby boomer phenomena. Which means this idea is likely wrong.
Should we take a big and extended (2 weeks <g>) dip, then you might see a
large increase in the number of mutual fund redemptions with the money going
to bonds earlier than predicted. If the dip extends into months, then the
US stock market driven economy might come to a halt as dot.com's go out of
business, along with the others that service and live off of the "new"
internet economy. Many people will be out of work. Those with remaining
assets will cash them in and again, switch to bonds or CD's. This will be
the signal that the ultimate deflation is starting to occur. But nothing
much will happen on a permanent basis until people start losing their jobs
(and stock options <g>).
JW
-----Original Message-----
From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Gwenael Gautier
Sent: Monday, January 10, 2000 5:40 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: Shift to Futures? 1974-2000 Cumvolume line
Babyboomers range from the 50s to 64. that means the eldest are now in
their fifties. Within a few years some will start moving risk assets
(equities) into safe assets (bonds) as growtrh will become less
important than security. In other words, i think the picture will start
deterirating between 2003 and 2008, with a nice 20 year bear market
(down or sideways) thereafter... But there is still time...
FWIW
Gwenn
Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Dennis,
>
> I tend to agree with your premise here,....
> Question: Realistically,...when do you think
> the boomers could start becoming more defensive
> ...in what year. Personally,..I think it could happen over the
> next year or two....and confuse this whole demographic
> scenario which is so universally accepted. Thanks.
>
> Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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