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German papers. As Allianz bought Pimco, now we know what's going on...
:-))
Gwenn
gary wrote:
> Excuse me
> but what papers??
>
> regards
> Gary Bodnar
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, January 10, 2000 1:32 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Shift to Futures? 1974-2000 Cumvolume line
>
> >There was a n interview of PIMCO chief this week end in our papers. They
> are
> >in the BIG league and belong to those making the flows that really move the
> >markets. Essentially he says, the funds rule the world today, because they
> >make or break the markets, economies by moving their funds. Hence
> >governments are now forced to comply to strict management. He expected
> >- G to raise rates twice 25bp this year, once in Feb (Rise is overdue, so
> he
> >said).
> >- long term US rates to rise a bit further maybe till 7% at most where they
> >would step in and buy (that means something)
> >- 10 year Euro rates to rise till 5,5% at most where they would step in and
> >buy (that means something)
> >- equity markets are very expensive but will remain so for another 2/3
> years
> >until we see the first retirements flows reverse...
> >- european and japanese markets are at the begining of their growth cycle.
> >- inflation at 3% in US and 2% in Europe
> >- no crash, institutions will buy each dip...
> >
> >FWIW
> >
> >Gwenn
> >
> >
> >Dennis Holverstott wrote:
> >
> >> > If 70 to 85 % of the stock owners in the country NEVER SELL, because
> >> > they are holding for the long term, according to how they have been
> >> > trained, isn't this shrinking the pool of assets
> >> > available for purchase thus driving prices up?
> >>
> >> Yup, that plays into the demographics model and is why I give the bull a
> >> few more years. Most people have their stocks in retirement accounts and
> >> they have been conditioned to just buy more on dips.
> >>
> >> The whole thing could get ugly though as the boomers approach retirement
> >> age. We saw what happened the first two days this year when a lot of
> >> people, for tax reasons, put off taking profits in their taxable
> >> accounts until after the year end. Imagine the whole boomer generation
> >> dumping the stocks in their tax-free accounts with no worries about
> >> paying taxes on the profits. The smart ones would get out quick and the
> >> others would hang in there and get whacked hard. The whole psychology of
> >> the market could change from buy the dips to sell the rallies as the
> >> retiring boomers start to consider security more important than growth.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Dennis
> >
> >
> >
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