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Excuse me
but what papers??
regards
Gary Bodnar
-----Original Message-----
From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, January 10, 2000 1:32 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Shift to Futures? 1974-2000 Cumvolume line
>There was a n interview of PIMCO chief this week end in our papers. They
are
>in the BIG league and belong to those making the flows that really move the
>markets. Essentially he says, the funds rule the world today, because they
>make or break the markets, economies by moving their funds. Hence
>governments are now forced to comply to strict management. He expected
>- G to raise rates twice 25bp this year, once in Feb (Rise is overdue, so
he
>said).
>- long term US rates to rise a bit further maybe till 7% at most where they
>would step in and buy (that means something)
>- 10 year Euro rates to rise till 5,5% at most where they would step in and
>buy (that means something)
>- equity markets are very expensive but will remain so for another 2/3
years
>until we see the first retirements flows reverse...
>- european and japanese markets are at the begining of their growth cycle.
>- inflation at 3% in US and 2% in Europe
>- no crash, institutions will buy each dip...
>
>FWIW
>
>Gwenn
>
>
>Dennis Holverstott wrote:
>
>> > If 70 to 85 % of the stock owners in the country NEVER SELL, because
>> > they are holding for the long term, according to how they have been
>> > trained, isn't this shrinking the pool of assets
>> > available for purchase thus driving prices up?
>>
>> Yup, that plays into the demographics model and is why I give the bull a
>> few more years. Most people have their stocks in retirement accounts and
>> they have been conditioned to just buy more on dips.
>>
>> The whole thing could get ugly though as the boomers approach retirement
>> age. We saw what happened the first two days this year when a lot of
>> people, for tax reasons, put off taking profits in their taxable
>> accounts until after the year end. Imagine the whole boomer generation
>> dumping the stocks in their tax-free accounts with no worries about
>> paying taxes on the profits. The smart ones would get out quick and the
>> others would hang in there and get whacked hard. The whole psychology of
>> the market could change from buy the dips to sell the rallies as the
>> retiring boomers start to consider security more important than growth.
>>
>> --
>> Dennis
>
>
>
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