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When everybody seeks to call the top, the top is still far away. When everybody
counts how much he will make more next week on the expected move to the next
target, the top is in.
Pick your choice,
Gwenn
James Taylor wrote:
> The question is: if you think it is a top, what do you intend to do about
> it ?
>
> It is not recommended to try to sell short the indexes, unless you wish to
> fade the uptrend, or wait until the trend changes. Tops are practically
> impossible to call, and in this mania of markets, you can get run over by
> being short -- especially given the total disregard & irresponsibility
> being demonstrated by Greenspan and his merry band of bubblemiesters.
>
> Since nearly 50% of all Nasdaq stocks were down, as well as 60% of S&P 500
> stocks, there are plenty of short sale candidates. These stocks are likely
> to continue their descent when the major indexes finally crack.
>
> What is your strategy for profiting from this magnificent opportunity ?
>
> James
> TechTrading.com
>
> --------------
> At 12:14 AM 1/10/00 +0100, Stig O wrote:
> >This is how Peter Eliades start his "Current Observations" at his webpage
> http://stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm :
> >---------------------------
> >Since 1900, 7 of the 10 years ending in zero have seen tops of varying
> importance occur within the first two trading days of the zero year. Some
> of the January zero year tops were secondary tops i.e. more important tops
> had already been seen, but all of the 7 noted years headed down within the
> first 2 trading days of the year. Here are the results:
> >
> >1900— Top on January 2 (1st trading day of the year) was the highest close
> of the next 10 months, except for February 5 which closed 0.3% higher
> >
> >1910— Top on January 3 (1st trading day) was the highest close of the next
> 5 years and 7 months
> >
> >1920— January 3, 1920 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next
> 5 years
> >
> >1940— January 3 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 5 years
> >
> >1960— January 4 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 16
> months
> >
> >1970— January 5 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 11
> months
> >
> >1990— January 2 (1st trading day) was the highest close of the next 4 months
> >
> >2000— ?????
> >
> >
> >-----------------
> >
> >Facts:
> >
> >
> >The highest Close for the DOW was on dec 31st 1999 and the High was on the
> 30th.
> >
> >S&P highest Close dec 31 and the highest High jan 3rd.
> >
> >Close, but is it Cigar?
> >
> >If we accept his Eliades' argument that the Nasdaq composite could act
> like the DOW of 1929, we DO have Cigar!
> >
> >High and Close Jan 3rd year 20000!
> >
> >If this IS to be the high for some time it's no coincidence, since it's
> not uncommon to see important highs and lows at perigee and apogee (i.e
> when earth is closest to the sun and farthest away ) (these dates are
> around Jan 4 (this year Jan 3) and aprox July 5th.
> >
> >Very interesting article.
> >
> >Stig
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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