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The question is: if you think it is a top, what do you intend to do about
it ?
It is not recommended to try to sell short the indexes, unless you wish to
fade the uptrend, or wait until the trend changes. Tops are practically
impossible to call, and in this mania of markets, you can get run over by
being short -- especially given the total disregard & irresponsibility
being demonstrated by Greenspan and his merry band of bubblemiesters.
Since nearly 50% of all Nasdaq stocks were down, as well as 60% of S&P 500
stocks, there are plenty of short sale candidates. These stocks are likely
to continue their descent when the major indexes finally crack.
What is your strategy for profiting from this magnificent opportunity ?
James
TechTrading.com
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At 12:14 AM 1/10/00 +0100, Stig O wrote:
>This is how Peter Eliades start his "Current Observations" at his webpage
http://stockmarketcycles.com/current_observations.htm :
>---------------------------
>Since 1900, 7 of the 10 years ending in zero have seen tops of varying
importance occur within the first two trading days of the zero year. Some
of the January zero year tops were secondary tops i.e. more important tops
had already been seen, but all of the 7 noted years headed down within the
first 2 trading days of the year. Here are the results:
>
>1900— Top on January 2 (1st trading day of the year) was the highest close
of the next 10 months, except for February 5 which closed 0.3% higher
>
>1910— Top on January 3 (1st trading day) was the highest close of the next
5 years and 7 months
>
>1920— January 3, 1920 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next
5 years
>
>1940— January 3 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 5 years
>
>1960— January 4 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 16
months
>
>1970— January 5 (2nd trading day) was the highest close of the next 11
months
>
>1990— January 2 (1st trading day) was the highest close of the next 4 months
>
>2000— ?????
>
>
>-----------------
>
>Facts:
>
>
>The highest Close for the DOW was on dec 31st 1999 and the High was on the
30th.
>
>S&P highest Close dec 31 and the highest High jan 3rd.
>
>Close, but is it Cigar?
>
>If we accept his Eliades' argument that the Nasdaq composite could act
like the DOW of 1929, we DO have Cigar!
>
>High and Close Jan 3rd year 20000!
>
>If this IS to be the high for some time it's no coincidence, since it's
not uncommon to see important highs and lows at perigee and apogee (i.e
when earth is closest to the sun and farthest away ) (these dates are
around Jan 4 (this year Jan 3) and aprox July 5th.
>
>Very interesting article.
>
>Stig
>
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