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Earl and others.
About historical evaluations.
I am thinking that there is a mechanism that hasn't been discussed and
might be one reason why valuations keep going up.
If 70 to 85 % of the stock owners in the country NEVER SELL, because
they are holding for the long term, according to how they have been
trained, isn't this shrinking the pool of assets
available for purchase thus driving prices up?
I am not talking about institutions that make the allocation decisions
or when to get in or out of a stock, but in aggregate.
I base this observation on the cumulative volume line since 1974. It
basically just goes sideways during corrective times then heads back up
in accumulation phase. If I am right,
this market could go into another accumulation phase, since the top in
1998.
Best Regards,
Don Thompson
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> With stocks at historical high valuations, many commodities at major
> multi-year cyclical lows, and bonds having just turned in a historically
> abysmal year, it is obvious that AJC has her allocation reversed from
> what it should be! Only momentum players believe that the bean stalk
> grows to the sky but any farmer can tell you that the price of the beans
> can't go much lower.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Marlowe Cassetti" <marlowec@xxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, January 08, 2000 12:15 AM
> Subject: [RT] GEN: Shift to Futures?
>
> > Just got through watching Abbey Joseph Cohen from Goldman Sachs on the
> PBS
> > Wall Street Week. When Louis R. asked her about asset allocation for
> year
> > 2000, she stated that for their institutional investors they (Goldman
> Sachs)
> > are recommending 70% equities, 27% bonds and 3% COMMODITIES!!! She
> > justified the 3% by stating that they expect commodities to show good
> growth
> > along with the economy and the stock markets. She also commented that
> bonds
> > should pick up and the foreign markets should pick up too.
> >
> > My point is really the slow shift to the realization by portfolio
> managers
> > that commodities should be represented (albeit small) in their
> holdings. As
> > a Financial Advisor, who speculates in the futures markets on the
> side, I
> > noted this was reflected in the recent issue of "Financial Planning
> > Magazine." The article "Toes in the Water" stated that few financial
> > advisors are willing to plunge into managed futures, but more and more
> are
> > willing to test the waters. In the body of the article it appears
> that
> > institutional investors and high net worth investors are comfortable
> to take
> > a small position in managed futures. This may very be the new
> portfolio
> > paradigm; equities, bonds, money market, real estate and futures for a
> > balanced asset allocation. Remember when the advice was to have a
> small
> > position in gold or other "hard" assets?
> >
> > If the technology and Internet sectors cool sometime in the future,
> new era
> > investors hooked on double and triple gains may push into futures and
> > managed futures for satisfaction. It will be interesting to see if
> this
> > plays out.
> >
> > Marlowe Cassetti
> > Colorado Springs, CO
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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