[RT] Re: Shift to Futures? 1974-2000 Cumvolume line

["Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>]

One needs to not confuse over-valuation with declines ... the two
operate independently. I'm sure that everyone accumulated all the tulip
bulbs they could until they started going down and then they were all
for sale ... JUST GET ME OUT! There are a couple of points I want to get
across:

1) all markets oscillate between extremes

2) the equity market is at extreme high valuations

3) the equity markets can go to even more extreme high valuations, much
more ... stock certificates no longer even require paper

4) many of the commodity markets are at extreme low valuations

5) the commodity markets can go to even more extreme low valuations, but
not much more due to cost of production (real stuff!)

6) the risks to investors in the stock market are extremely high

7) the risks to investors in many commodity markets (assuming judicious
use of leverage) is extremely low

I will invest in commodities but my work with equities is limited (with
minor exceptions) to trading because I can't forecast the date or price
of the top.

Earl

----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, January 08, 2000 5:31 PM
Subject: [RT] Shift to Futures? 1974-2000 Cumvolume line


> Earl and others.
>
> About historical evaluations.
>
> I am thinking that there is a mechanism that hasn't been discussed and
> might be one reason why valuations keep going up.
>
> If 70 to 85 % of the stock owners in the country NEVER SELL, because
> they are holding for the long term, according to how they have been
> trained, isn't this shrinking the pool of assets
> available for purchase thus driving prices up?
>
> I am not talking about institutions that make the allocation decisions
> or when to get in or out of a stock, but in aggregate.
>
> I base this observation on the cumulative volume line since 1974.  It
> basically just goes sideways during corrective times then heads back
up
> in accumulation phase.  If I am right,
> this market could go into another accumulation phase, since the top in
> 1998.
>
> Best Regards,
>
> Don Thompson
>
> Earl Adamy wrote:
> >
> > With stocks at historical high valuations, many commodities at major
> > multi-year cyclical lows, and bonds having just turned in a
historically
> > abysmal year, it is obvious that AJC has her allocation reversed
from
> > what it should be! Only momentum players believe that the bean stalk
> > grows to the sky but any farmer can tell you that the price of the
beans
> > can't go much lower.
> >
> > Earl