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<DIV>is any member aware of such download ???.your help will be much
appreciated</DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Dec 26 22:45:24 1999
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Date: Sun, 26 Dec 1999 21:37:33 -0600
From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Sv: TBond Futures - NW
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Reply-to: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
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Status:
The attached is the result of an analysis of cycles existing
in weekly bond data dating from 1983 taken from a
continuous series adjusted to new 6% bond.
There are three dominant cycles of longer period -- none
of which are 144 weeks but there is one at 160 and another
with about 1/2 the 160 week amplitude at 120 which might
lead to the 144 guess.
The composite of cycles shows bonds to be bottoming
in this general area. The bottom is so flat that it is not
possible to make a good guess at exactly when the bottom
will (or has) appeared.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
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----- Original Message -----
From: "nwinski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, December 26, 1999 22:40
Subject: [RT] Re: Sv: TBond Futures - NW
>
>
> Stig O wrote:
>
> > -----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
> > Fra: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Til: olausson@xxxxxxxxxx <olausson@xxxxxxxxxx>; realtraders
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Dato: 26. december 1999 03:58
> > Emne: Re: [RT] TBond Futures - NW
> >
> > >Stig,
> > > Couldn't we have seen the 144 month (12 years) cycle this past
October, ref. 12 years from
> > >October 1987?
> >
> > I am not sure I understand your question. Are we not suggesting the
same thing, pointing to the possibillity of a low in October 99?
>
> NW: I didn't understand that you had said that we had made a low in
October. Your following analysis
> doesn't make it any clearer to me now. Is there a 144 month cycle or
isn't there? If yes, it would certainly seem to me that the US stock
market make an important low in mid October 1999.
>
> >
> > The same thing I am implying in my gigantic wedge gif?
> > Or rather I said, If we did not get the low we "should" have had, we
will probably have an acceleration down. ( we have two choices).
> > And since we evidently did not have a low, we will have an
acceleration down. Which we also usually have in the case of breakdowns
from rising wedges.
> >
> > On the other hand, your opinion (for a low in Feb) does not
contradict mine, since we very well could have the breakmovedown undil
feb 6 or 29 for a bottom and then a move up to test the lower trend line
from below ( a good buy kiss).
> >
> > > As for the Heard & Shoulders, it takes two shoulders to make a H&S
pattern. The shoulders should be at least as big, (at least in time) >as
the head. Studying your Bond chart, at best, I only see one shoulder
(our left). Neither alledged shoulder is anywhere as large as is the
>head. Just my opinion.
> > >
> > >
> > You know, Norman, my problem is that I see Head and Shoulder
patterns everywhere. If I remember correct I posted a H&S in March
TBonds this spring, warning of a decline down to a minimum (the min
objective in the pattern) of 112.
> > I received tons of mail where the sender told me it was impossible
to see rates above 6% the system would simply break down....
>
> NW: I agree. Studying your previous anaslysi, I did get the impression
that you liberally anoint many chart patterns with the Head & Shoulders
mantle. I think most market technicians have this tendency. Perhaps you
have had good success with this approach? I found it more helpful to use
very well defined and strict parameters to categorize market
> patterns. The authentic H&S pattern is actually rather rare. The
almost look alikes can be called quasi-H&S which usually fail are are
often found as part as a Elliott Wave IV correction.
>
> >
> > This of course does not imply that we ARE having a Head and Shoulder
pattern as I describe it for sure. On the other hand, can you really
correctly say that it is NOT a Head and Shoulder Pattern??
>
> NW: I have no problems saying that it doesn't look like a proper H&S
pattern to me.
>
> >
> >
> > NW
T-Bond Update
> > >
> > > Watch for the 88 to 88-16 area to go long T-Bonds in February.
Market may bottom Feb. 6 - 10, but safest time to buy for a bounce will
>be circa Feb. 29 as there is likely to be a double bottom or at least
two attempts at establishing the low. This is an update to my earlier
>forecast for a Feb. 29 low for T-Bonds and US financials. When I
> > >posted this, I had overlooked that a close cousin to the the Feb.
29 event will occur on Feb. 6. This should set up a double bottom
>senario, i.e. Feb. 6 & Feb. 29.
> >
> > Norman
> > On Feb 28, in my computer ephemeris (time set to GMT+1), I see
> > Pluto sextile to Venus
> > Pluto square to Mercury
> > Pluto trine to March
> > As seen from Earth
> >
> > Is that the cousin to the feb 5 event?
>
> NW: FIrst of all, you have stated all these mutual aspects backwards.
The faster planets always aspect the slower moving planets and are
always stated accrodingly, i.e. NOT Pluto sextile Venus but Venus is
sextile Pluto. Also, all the aspects you have listed are mostly small
events, not the stuff that would make for a important Bond change in
> trend. The two related big aspects I am looking at for the important
change in trend for T-Bonds is found in the aspects to the USA natal
chart. Please don't ask me to post the USA natal data publicly.
>
> >
> > Solar Eclipse and Sun conjunct Uranus
> > In other words On a straight line we have Earth the Moon, Sun and
Uranus?
> >
> > Do they both indicate a bottom or just a trend change?
>
> NW: Nice confirmation for my big aspect to the USA..
>
> >
> >
> > >Feb. 10-11 also looks very powerful for a change in trend for the
markets. I guess this means that the Fed wiill raise interest rates when
>the FOMC meets in earlry Feb.
> >
> > If the FED raises rates early Feb as you suggest does that make Bond
prices rise?
> > I thought it was the other way around.
> > or
> > Is it a relief rally?
> > Are you suggesting a smaller hike than expected?
>
> NW: Interest rate hikes in the short term usually make bonds go lower
as dealers see their cost
> of carry go up they liqudate longs. Longer term, as higher rates slow
the economy, bonds become
> a safe haven to preserve investment income. If the Fed only raises
rates 25 basis points, it may be perceived that this is not enough to
slow the economy sufficiently. Then bond players will worry that
> more rate hikes are coming, causing the bond market to go lower in
anticipation of a higher cost of
> funds.
>
>
> > Regards,
>
> Norman
>
> >
> >
> > Best regards
> >
> > Stig
> >
> > >Bondingly,
> > >
> > >Norman
> > >
> > >
> > >Stig O wrote:
> > >
> > >> In my opinion we have now had enough of "False" breakouts and we
are now in for the real thing. We should be heading down and it could be
wave 3, hence a rather steep decline - in line with the breakdown from
the gigantic rising wedge from 1984 posted earlier.
> > >> the gif you see was posted in October when the DEC TBond was
trading 112.22 the close on Dec 21 1999 was 111.02. In other words, if
we don't have a rally before years end, the breakdown of the large
rising wedge put the odds in favor of declining prices in the future.
and breakdowns out of rising wedges tend to be fast ones. (like a
W:3s ).
> > >>
> > >> Now look at the Dec H6S gif and remember that the last low CLOSED
3 times below the first break of the neckline of the large Head and
Shouldr pattern in TBonds.
> > >>
> > >> Hence this pattern also indicates lower prices.
> > >>
> > >> please read on ...
> > >>
> > >> Stig
> > >>
> >
---------------------------------------------------------------------
---
> > >>
> > >> Name: Long wedge.gif
> > >> Long wedge.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > >> Encoding: base64
> > >>
> > >> Name: Dec H&S.gif
> > >> Dec H&S.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > >> Encoding: base64
> > >
> > >
>
>
>
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