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Stig O wrote:
> -----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
> Fra: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Til: olausson@xxxxxxxxxx <olausson@xxxxxxxxxx>; realtraders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Dato: 26. december 1999 03:58
> Emne: Re: [RT] TBond Futures - NW
>
> >Stig,
> > Couldn't we have seen the 144 month (12 years) cycle this past October, ref. 12 years from
> >October 1987?
>
> I am not sure I understand your question. Are we not suggesting the same thing, pointing to the possibillity of a low in October 99?
NW: I didn't understand that you had said that we had made a low in October. Your following analysis
doesn't make it any clearer to me now. Is there a 144 month cycle or isn't there? If yes, it would certainly seem to me that the US stock market make an important low in mid October 1999.
>
> The same thing I am implying in my gigantic wedge gif?
> Or rather I said, If we did not get the low we "should" have had, we will probably have an acceleration down. ( we have two choices).
> And since we evidently did not have a low, we will have an acceleration down. Which we also usually have in the case of breakdowns from rising wedges.
>
> On the other hand, your opinion (for a low in Feb) does not contradict mine, since we very well could have the breakmovedown undil feb 6 or 29 for a bottom and then a move up to test the lower trend line from below ( a good buy kiss).
>
> > As for the Heard & Shoulders, it takes two shoulders to make a H&S pattern. The shoulders should be at least as big, (at least in time) >as the head. Studying your Bond chart, at best, I only see one shoulder (our left). Neither alledged shoulder is anywhere as large as is the >head. Just my opinion.
> >
> >
> You know, Norman, my problem is that I see Head and Shoulder patterns everywhere. If I remember correct I posted a H&S in March TBonds this spring, warning of a decline down to a minimum (the min objective in the pattern) of 112.
> I received tons of mail where the sender told me it was impossible to see rates above 6% the system would simply break down....
NW: I agree. Studying your previous anaslysi, I did get the impression that you liberally anoint many chart patterns with the Head & Shoulders mantle. I think most market technicians have this tendency. Perhaps you have had good success with this approach? I found it more helpful to use very well defined and strict parameters to categorize market
patterns. The authentic H&S pattern is actually rather rare. The almost look alikes can be called quasi-H&S which usually fail are are often found as part as a Elliott Wave IV correction.
>
> This of course does not imply that we ARE having a Head and Shoulder pattern as I describe it for sure. On the other hand, can you really correctly say that it is NOT a Head and Shoulder Pattern??
NW: I have no problems saying that it doesn't look like a proper H&S pattern to me.
>
>
> NW T-Bond Update
> >
> > Watch for the 88 to 88-16 area to go long T-Bonds in February. Market may bottom Feb. 6 - 10, but safest time to buy for a bounce will >be circa Feb. 29 as there is likely to be a double bottom or at least two attempts at establishing the low. This is an update to my earlier >forecast for a Feb. 29 low for T-Bonds and US financials. When I
> >posted this, I had overlooked that a close cousin to the the Feb. 29 event will occur on Feb. 6. This should set up a double bottom >senario, i.e. Feb. 6 & Feb. 29.
>
> Norman
> On Feb 28, in my computer ephemeris (time set to GMT+1), I see
> Pluto sextile to Venus
> Pluto square to Mercury
> Pluto trine to March
> As seen from Earth
>
> Is that the cousin to the feb 5 event?
NW: FIrst of all, you have stated all these mutual aspects backwards. The faster planets always aspect the slower moving planets and are always stated accrodingly, i.e. NOT Pluto sextile Venus but Venus is sextile Pluto. Also, all the aspects you have listed are mostly small events, not the stuff that would make for a important Bond change in
trend. The two related big aspects I am looking at for the important change in trend for T-Bonds is found in the aspects to the USA natal chart. Please don't ask me to post the USA natal data publicly.
>
> Solar Eclipse and Sun conjunct Uranus
> In other words On a straight line we have Earth the Moon, Sun and Uranus?
>
> Do they both indicate a bottom or just a trend change?
NW: Nice confirmation for my big aspect to the USA..
>
>
> >Feb. 10-11 also looks very powerful for a change in trend for the markets. I guess this means that the Fed wiill raise interest rates when >the FOMC meets in earlry Feb.
>
> If the FED raises rates early Feb as you suggest does that make Bond prices rise?
> I thought it was the other way around.
> or
> Is it a relief rally?
> Are you suggesting a smaller hike than expected?
NW: Interest rate hikes in the short term usually make bonds go lower as dealers see their cost
of carry go up they liqudate longs. Longer term, as higher rates slow the economy, bonds become
a safe haven to preserve investment income. If the Fed only raises rates 25 basis points, it may be perceived that this is not enough to slow the economy sufficiently. Then bond players will worry that
more rate hikes are coming, causing the bond market to go lower in anticipation of a higher cost of
funds.
> Regards,
Norman
>
>
> Best regards
>
> Stig
>
> >Bondingly,
> >
> >Norman
> >
> >
> >Stig O wrote:
> >
> >> In my opinion we have now had enough of "False" breakouts and we are now in for the real thing. We should be heading down and it could be wave 3, hence a rather steep decline - in line with the breakdown from the gigantic rising wedge from 1984 posted earlier.
> >> the gif you see was posted in October when the DEC TBond was trading 112.22 the close on Dec 21 1999 was 111.02. In other words, if we don't have a rally before years end, the breakdown of the large rising wedge put the odds in favor of declining prices in the future. and breakdowns out of rising wedges tend to be fast ones. (like a W:3s ).
> >>
> >> Now look at the Dec H6S gif and remember that the last low CLOSED 3 times below the first break of the neckline of the large Head and Shouldr pattern in TBonds.
> >>
> >> Hence this pattern also indicates lower prices.
> >>
> >> please read on ...
> >>
> >> Stig
> >>
> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >> Name: Long wedge.gif
> >> Long wedge.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> >> Encoding: base64
> >>
> >> Name: Dec H&S.gif
> >> Dec H&S.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> >> Encoding: base64
> >
> >
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