|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
-----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
Fra: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Til: olausson@xxxxxxxxxx <olausson@xxxxxxxxxx>; realtraders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Dato: 26. december 1999 03:58
Emne: Re: [RT] TBond Futures - NW
>Stig,
> Couldn't we have seen the 144 month (12 years) cycle this past October, ref. 12 years from
>October 1987?
I am not sure I understand your question. Are we not suggesting the same thing, pointing to the possibillity of a low in October 99?
The same thing I am implying in my gigantic wedge gif?
Or rather I said, If we did not get the low we "should" have had, we will probably have an acceleration down. ( we have two choices).
And since we evidently did not have a low, we will have an acceleration down. Which we also usually have in the case of breakdowns from rising wedges.
On the other hand, your opinion (for a low in Feb) does not contradict mine, since we very well could have the breakmovedown undil feb 6 or 29 for a bottom and then a move up to test the lower trend line from below ( a good buy kiss).
> As for the Heard & Shoulders, it takes two shoulders to make a H&S pattern. The shoulders should be at least as big, (at least in time) >as the head. Studying your Bond chart, at best, I only see one shoulder (our left). Neither alledged shoulder is anywhere as large as is the >head. Just my opinion.
>
>
You know, Norman, my problem is that I see Head and Shoulder patterns everywhere. If I remember correct I posted a H&S in March TBonds this spring, warning of a decline down to a minimum (the min objective in the pattern) of 112.
I received tons of mail where the sender told me it was impossible to see rates above 6% the system would simply break down....
This of course does not imply that we ARE having a Head and Shoulder pattern as I describe it for sure. On the other hand, can you really correctly say that it is NOT a Head and Shoulder Pattern??
NW T-Bond Update
>
> Watch for the 88 to 88-16 area to go long T-Bonds in February. Market may bottom Feb. 6 - 10, but safest time to buy for a bounce will >be circa Feb. 29 as there is likely to be a double bottom or at least two attempts at establishing the low. This is an update to my earlier >forecast for a Feb. 29 low for T-Bonds and US financials. When I
>posted this, I had overlooked that a close cousin to the the Feb. 29 event will occur on Feb. 6. This should set up a double bottom >senario, i.e. Feb. 6 & Feb. 29.
Norman
On Feb 28, in my computer ephemeris (time set to GMT+1), I see
Pluto sextile to Venus
Pluto square to Mercury
Pluto trine to March
As seen from Earth
Is that the cousin to the feb 5 event?
Solar Eclipse and Sun conjunct Uranus
In other words On a straight line we have Earth the Moon, Sun and Uranus?
Do they both indicate a bottom or just a trend change?
>Feb. 10-11 also looks very powerful for a change in trend for the markets. I guess this means that the Fed wiill raise interest rates when >the FOMC meets in earlry Feb.
If the FED raises rates early Feb as you suggest does that make Bond prices rise?
I thought it was the other way around.
or
Is it a relief rally?
Are you suggesting a smaller hike than expected?
Best regards
Stig
>Bondingly,
>
>Norman
>
>
>Stig O wrote:
>
>> In my opinion we have now had enough of "False" breakouts and we are now in for the real thing. We should be heading down and it could be wave 3, hence a rather steep decline - in line with the breakdown from the gigantic rising wedge from 1984 posted earlier.
>> the gif you see was posted in October when the DEC TBond was trading 112.22 the close on Dec 21 1999 was 111.02. In other words, if we don't have a rally before years end, the breakdown of the large rising wedge put the odds in favor of declining prices in the future. and breakdowns out of rising wedges tend to be fast ones. (like a W:3s ).
>>
>> Now look at the Dec H6S gif and remember that the last low CLOSED 3 times below the first break of the neckline of the large Head and Shouldr pattern in TBonds.
>>
>> Hence this pattern also indicates lower prices.
>>
>> please read on ...
>>
>> Stig
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> Name: Long wedge.gif
>> Long wedge.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>> Encoding: base64
>>
>> Name: Dec H&S.gif
>> Dec H&S.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
>> Encoding: base64
>
>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\March99.gif"
|