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Historically, the great fortunes have been made by buying low and
selling high: real estate, stocks, oil, commodities. There are periods
when the greater fool theory (buy high and sell higher) prevails, but
inevitably the day arrives when the music stops and there is not an
empty chair. I bought a small position in a Russell 2000 indexed fund
last month for a seasonal trade in our IRA's. Other than that I am out
of stocks and I am not even thinking about buying (nor am I dreaming
about shorting the indexes). And yes, I am afraid of the stock market
and not ashamed to admit it! The relatively low risk opportunities for
large gains are in many of the beaten down commodities, not in stocks.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: List Serenity-Trading <serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, December 23, 1999 3:08 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Dilemma
> Trouble is , Everybody speaks of bullishness, but ALL comments I read
> ANYWHERE were all fearful, mine included. Everybody speaks of
bullishness, in
> the press and TV in particular, and yet all are afraid of a larger
> correction. Does that mean the real consensus is that a correction is
near,
> meaning it isn't? Tell me:
> - Who amongst yourselves is buying stocks now???
> - Who is not because it is too high, and you are afraid???
> - Who is waiting to buy on a correction???
>
> I was about to sell some of my net stocks yesterday when some blasted
through
> upper resistance lines. Blow Off or beginning of new bull? Since I am
very
> afraid, I tend to think this is a bull. In the 80s before the crash,
people
> were not afraid. They were making fun of you if you bought 100 shares
where
> you could load up 1000.
>
> They say, let your profits run. I think now it can be much harder to
do that
> than to cut losses short. In fact it is like racing fullspeed ahead
> blindfolded and trusting your triggers.
>
> So what's my road map now?
> - I assume we are going up without correction till the first week of
Jan or
> so, and a large correction hits us out of the blue for NO OBVIOUS
REASON and
> by SURPRISE, just as everybody is getting resignated prices always
keep
> rising and there is no correction coming. How about that?
>
> confused Gwenn
>
>
>
>
> Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> > In a message dated 12/22/99 2:01:26 PM Pacific Standard Time,
> > hehohop@xxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> >
> > << I beleive that the high level of bullishness, discounting of the
y2k
> > non-event, and the January Effect migration to Nov/Dec is a setup
for a
> > down January in the stock markets.
> > >>
> > All good points,...consider too the likelihood of
> > tax selling in NASDAQ issues being deferred into
> > next year,...can postpone a tax bill for another
> > year if sale is delayed into year 2000,...etc.
> > Players with huge gains want to defer those
> > gains into next year's tax bill. Question is will
> > tax selling to lock in gains more than offset
> > sidelines cash looking to re-enter the market
> > assuming Y2K is a non-event. My guess is yes,
> > ..as the gains in Nasdaq are so huge,...the
> > sentiment so complacent,..and at some point
> > the pressure from rising interest rates likely to
> > become real,...that it is difficult to see how a
> > new uptrend could develop from these levels.
> >
> > The most constructive thing in my mind that
> > could happen at some point in time in the First
> > Quarter of 2000 we get very washed out,.....
> > then the possibility for a sustained advance
> > would be much greater.
> >
> > Regards,....JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
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