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In a message dated 12/22/99 2:01:26 PM Pacific Standard Time,
hehohop@xxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< I beleive that the high level of bullishness, discounting of the y2k
non-event, and the January Effect migration to Nov/Dec is a setup for a
down January in the stock markets.
>>
All good points,...consider too the likelihood of
tax selling in NASDAQ issues being deferred into
next year,...can postpone a tax bill for another
year if sale is delayed into year 2000,...etc.
Players with huge gains want to defer those
gains into next year's tax bill. Question is will
tax selling to lock in gains more than offset
sidelines cash looking to re-enter the market
assuming Y2K is a non-event. My guess is yes,
..as the gains in Nasdaq are so huge,...the
sentiment so complacent,..and at some point
the pressure from rising interest rates likely to
become real,...that it is difficult to see how a
new uptrend could develop from these levels.
The most constructive thing in my mind that
could happen at some point in time in the First
Quarter of 2000 we get very washed out,.....
then the possibility for a sustained advance
would be much greater.
Regards,....JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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