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[RT] Gen:Wanted: Info on MKT--Public Sentiment (small specs) -vs- COT--Commercials



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<DIV><FONT size=2>I'm going to ask serious 'chartists' on the list this before I 
make some calls.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Sometime in the next 3-6 months I am planning on developing a way to 
combine my own technical analysis on the monthly, weekly charts--with a 
histogram/oscillator of MKT--Public Sentiment vs COT--Commercials on the bottom 
of the charts I plan on following.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>To the list:&nbsp;What I am looking for is the source of information that 
can give me the numbers for public sentiment vs commercials so that I can chart 
the historical/present corellations and possible divergences.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Somewhat like the stuff Steve Karnish does on his bollinger band 
histograms.&nbsp; I recall there is info made available that is CCT.&nbsp; I'm 
looking for the above, in my subject title.&nbsp; </DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Anyone know where that's available?&nbsp; I use qcharts (mostly) and have 
Tradestation (don't program stuff though--just use it for back-up and some 
mechanical background on back row of monitors).&nbsp; This is something I've 
been planning for the new year--and just thought someone might point me in the 
right direction.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Thanks for any help,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Steven Schroeder</DIV></BODY></HTML>
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Status:   



Brian wrote:

> Hello,
>
> I recently joined RealTraders, and so far have been thorougly impressed with
> the quality of posts as well as the excellent knowledge that many of you
> have shared. I'm happy to be here.
>
> I'm writing this email both to provide a brief introduction to myself and
> also to ask for some general advice and information.
>
> My name is Brian, I'm 22 years old and live in Salt Lake City, Utah. I'm a
> fourth-year senior at the University of Utah pursuing degrees in Physics and
> History and a minor in Math. I am presently employed by eBay. I was disowned
> and disinherited a couple years ago, because I left my parents' religion.
> Shortly after this, my girlfriend dumped me, my friend died, and my dog got
> hit by a car. My father must have felt guilty about this turn of events
> because I received substantial amount of money. At that time I knew very
> little about money, and I, unfortunately, decided to use most of it to buy a
> house.
>
> Up until my disowning, I was given stocks and mutual funds by my father and
> grandfather throughout my life. I retained these through my disinheriting.
> These are mostly Blue Chip stocks and conservative funds. Some of these
> shares have not ever been traded during my life. All are conservative in
> nature and were bought with long-term growth and investment in mind. While
> these belong exlusively to me, I made verbal agreements when I received them
> that I would never sell them (I suppose 'never' meaning until the benefactor
> dies) unless the long term viability of the company had changed. To date,
> this has not ever happened and, at this time, I intend to honor my
> agreements. All have been at least moderately successful, from the patient
> investor's viewpoint. (Patience being a virtue that I don't possess.)
>
> My knowledge of the market is generally very traditional. My father
> endeavored to educate me in economics and, as a result, I feel that I have a
> good foundation of knowledge. Inclusion to this list has, however, made that
> foundation appear much smaller than I previously thought. :-)
>
> Last July I made my first foray into day trading, blindly following the
> advice of a friend. Three weeks later, I was out a little over $10,000,
> mostly to fees and commissions on top of a few horrendous trades. That
> debacle taught me that never again would I find myself ignorant in regards
> to a market I was vested in. I have conducted zero actual transactions since
> July.
>
> After losing my money, I read a couple books, all of The Motley Fool
> archives, and decided that anything other than long term investing was
> basically gambling, and that I'd have better odds, not to mention more fun,
> if I moved to Vegas.
>
> Then I made a friend who had then just begun option trading. In the three
> months I've known him, he's gone from having significant debt to quitting
> his job and paying cash for a nice house. In light of this information, I
> reconsidered my previous determination and am now attempting to gain enough
> knowledge and insight to follow his example.
>
> My short term goals are to make enough money to: 1) not have to work any
> longer for someone else; 2) find it financially feasible to buy a house near
> and attend Graduate School in Mathematics at Berkeley. (Thereby escaping
> from Salt Lake Shitty.) My long term goal is to build enough wealth that
> lack of money will never be a factor in decisions regarding my life.
>
> The successful option trader has given me a book, _On Track Investing- A
> Guide To Simulation Trading_ by David R. Herbert. This book is very simple
> and basic, but I have still gleaned some knowledge from it. Apparently it is
> associated with Wade Cook. I don't know who that is, but from people's
> reactions I surmise he is the Amway of investors. At the direction of Mr.
> Herbert, I have been conducting practice trades.
>
> In light of the recent posts by Clyde and Earl, I have ordered _Technical
> Analysis of Stock Trends_ by Robert D. Edwards, John F. Magee.
>
> Currently I am interested in Options. I like the idea of knowing my maximum
> loss when I enter a trade. I ground away noticeable amounts of my teeth
> while half-sleeping in July. I'm the first to admit, though, that my
> interest in Options is probably due both to proximity in addition to lack of
> knowledge of other strategies.
>
> Basically, I'm pretty ignorant about everything. :-) I'm looking to learn
> anything and everything I can which will help me to reach my objectives.
>
> Given my goals and history, are there any strategies that anyone might
> suggest?
>
> What resources would you recommend? (Books, websites, etc.)
>
> What programs are the best? TeleChart 2000 was recommended in the Wade Cook
> book.
>
> I appreciate your time in this matter. All responses are very appreciated.
> I'm looking forward to belonging to RealTraders.
>
> Regards,
>
> Brian,

       First finish your undergrad degree. If you are really good at math and
also excellent at playing
games such as chess or bridge, you may be able to get a job as a floor trader
for one of the big option trading firms, i.e Blair Hull or the Ritchie Bros. on
one of the option exchanges. This means you eak out 1/16s and 1/8s 500 or 1,000
at a time.No speculating. It is strictly hedging strategies. You buy something
that is theoretically undervalued and hedge that buy selling a related option
which is theoretically overvalued. They will train you how to be a good robotic
trader. Assuming you can get hired, in a year or two, you could be making a six
figure income. San Francisco and Chicago (Chicago is the biggest) have optoin
exchanges, so you can trade during the day and pursue your education at either
Berkley or U. of Chicago by night. This means you will be moving. So, you will
need to sell your house. The average house is on the market for seven months
before it sells, so you need to start working on that now. If you get lucky and
sell it early, you can always move into an apartment temporarily.
        Ok, now that you have the money from the house, with whatever you don't
need for living and your education, if you have any siblings, give the money to
them. You shouldn't have accepted money from someone who would disown or
disinherit you. Sounds like your family is very controlling. Giving money to
your siblings will be a dose of their own medicine. Tell them you don't want the
money. Otherwise, give it to some needy folks or to some good cause your folks
would never approve, in their name..<G> After you are successful, you should
give the rest back too. Then no one will own you. I know what I am talking
about. My mother threatened to disinherit me. I told her where to shove it. <G>
When she realized this wouldn't change me, she change her mind. Be your own
person. You will be happier and more successful. Those who would turn their back
on you are not your friends. Loyal friends and family are their for you thru
thick or thin regardless of your religious beliefs. They must accept you for who
you are, not who they want you to be.  That is what love is. Those who would try
to control you thru money are not to be trusted and are certainly hypocrits for
judging your religious beliefs. Afterall, the essence of most religions is
teaching what is right and wrong and how to treat one's fellow beings.
Controlling loved ones with money is far from being spiritual. Bottomline, I
suggest you "disown" those who would disown you. There is a bigger plan for you.
Go out and be your own person and see how far you can go on your own. Encumbered
with all that money, you never would have known whether you are successful
because of family money or because of your own efforts. Now you have a chance to
realize your full potential and to take full credit for it.

Best Wishes,

Norman
member/market maker
Chicago Board Options Exchange
1975-1987