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Hi RTs,
This topic may not be easy to discuss. The main question must be the
independence of the central bank (the Fed). Is the Fed really
independent from our political regime?
During the Cold War, one ex-"the Fed" official said that central bank is
as independent as Estonia! In the 90's, we knew that Estonia has got
its independence from Former Soviet Union. How about the Fed? I am not
so sure.
If a central bank is not independent from the political regime, a
central banker is simply a slave to the head of the state. Thus, I am
not sure that Greenspan should get all the blames. (or all the praises)
One of the major mistakes that was made in recent years was to keep a
expansionary monetary policy. This has sustained a liquidity driven
economy (and stock markets) that will not last forever. Therefore, I
think that it is fair for James Taylor to say something that was not too
positive about the Fed.
Go to our real trading world, T-Bond indeed gives a technical signal to
me that I should cover my short positions right here. However, yen is
still going up. So, fundamentally, I should hold on. This is a clash
between our fundamental force and our technical force.
I am not so sure about all overbought/oversold indicators. They look
great. However, I had a bad start. The first time I was introduced
into the business; I was looking my first technical chart, it turns out
to 1994 coffee. All types of overbought/oversold indicators suggested
that coffee was over-bought. Then, it went limit up again and again.
Thank God I was not short. But, that gave me some doubts about the
potential danger that might exist in those indicators.
All the best!
Mervin
James Taylor wrote:
>
> This Greenspan really amazes me in his total disregard for the people of
> this country. I just hope he is still alive to see the damage he has done,
> when the aged are on the streets begging for food and shelter, the riots
> and crime waves rage, thousands of banks fold, and this nation is brought
> to the brink of civil war over the economic collapse that is an absolute
> certainty.
>
> "The larger the lie, the greater the likelihood that the public will
> believe it." Adolf Hitler
>
> "Risk varies inversely with knowledge" Irving Fisher (1867-1947)
>
> "That which is about to fall, deserves to be pushed" Frederich Nietzsche
>
> "No price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull" Proverb
>
> "Every great robbery that was ever perpetrated upon a people has been by
> virtue of and in the name of law." Albert Parsons, on being sentenced to
> hang, 1886
>
> and last but not least, dedicated to the old fool Greenspan, Clinton's pet
> worthless lackey
>
> "A 'sound' banker, alas! is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but
> one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way
> along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him." John Maynard
> Keyes (1883-1946)
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