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Jim,
So is what you are saying that this index has forecast 12 out of the past 6
crashes?
This reminds me of the famous 1960s quote by Nobel Prize winning Economist Paul
Samuelson who
said that Economists had forecasted 11 out of the past 6 recessions.
Anyway, if this crash index is accurate 50% of time, I offer a rival but
simpler indicator. Get a coin. A larger size coin tends to work better. Make a
fist with your thumb on top and tip of thumb buried under index finger (that
must be where the "Index" part comes in). Balance coin on thumb and index
finger. Flip coin into air. If coin lands with heads up, market will rally
sometime in the near future.. If tails, a bear market is gonna happen sometime
in the near future (near future is an undefined time period).
I realize that these instructions may seem complicated at first blush. But
with a little practice, most
people (even traders) should be able to master this technique to where they can
get a reading on the market in a matter of seconds. The best part is that no
math, computer code, or ELA
(whatever the heck that is) is required. I know this may cause some to have ELA
or computer code
withdrawals, but most folks that I know who have tried this were able to
overcome their addiction.
For those who have trouble kicking their habit, we are considering offering a 12
step program and a help line (only $3.95 per minute). .
So give the Coin Crash Index a try. I am sure it is as good as some of the
other indicators that have
been recommended. Please consider this my holiday gift to RT. I would send you
to my web site for more info on this indicator, where I would try to sell you
lots of stuff, but I don't have one. I eagerly look forward to your feedback and
research results. .
Flippantly,
Norman
P.S. Void where prohibited by law. Batteries not included. Results may vary
depending on skill of user and coin dynamics. Past results is no guarantee of
future performance.
Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Thanks Dennis for this posting.
>
> Do you follow keep track of signals based on either
> the Titanic rules or the Meyer rules? I know this is
> a pain in the ass question,...say for over the past
> year,..I was wondering what if any signals have been
> generated. Thanks.
>
> I do monitor the Crash Index,...(developed by Henry
> Ford,...prior to the crash of 1987),...and believe that
> since 1980,..the Crash Index has signaled the -10
> reading on 12 occasions,...and has been wrong 6 of
> those times. More recent signals include:
>
> 12-10-99 (as yet unknown)
> 08-03-99 (right)
> 03-01-99 (wrong)
> 07-24-98 (right)
>
> Have had 2 false signals in the past 5 years (1994 and 1999), ...BUT,...
> HAVE NEVER FAILED TO SIGNAL A MAJOR US MARKET CRASH.
> And the -10 reading now indicates conditions are again in place for a crash.
>
> Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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