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> Thanks Dennis for this posting.
>
> Do you follow keep track of signals based on either
> the Titanic rules or the Meyer rules?
The short answer is no. I trade short term and I think these things
would only interest long-term investors. As I recall, someone ran some
tests on Titanic and it didn't do very well. My only interest would be
to know what the crowd is thinking so I could fade them.
As for the Crash index, IMHO there are far too few signals for the
results to have any statistical significance. If you tell me something
has given 10 signals in 20 years and 5 of them worked, my answer is to
just shrug. I'd want to see at least 100 signals before I started paying
much attention.
> Have had 2 false signals in the past 5 years (1994 and 1999),
Make that 3 (2 in 1999). Or 3 in 1999 if you count this signal as a
separate one rather than a continuation of the Aug 3 signal. <g> If you
were long the NDX, the Aug 3 signal would have gotten you out at the
bottom of a retrace from the July high and you would have missed the 50%
run.
>...BUT,...
> HAVE NEVER FAILED TO SIGNAL A MAJOR US MARKET CRASH.
To give a ridiculous comparison <grin, it's a joke>, the sun has risen
many times over the last 100 years. There have been many false signals
but a sunrise has NEVER FAILED TO SIGNAL A MAJOR US MARKET CRASH.
--
Dennis
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