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Earl,
I closed short positions on Friday and I'm now long in wheat. Most of my
wheat positions average 7 or 8 days, I'm always in the market, ... so
seasonality isn't all that important to my trading system. The important
thing is that you are wrong about this period of time being "seasonally
weak" for wheat. MRCI (Moore Research), Iowa State, Michigan State, U of
Maryland and many other institutions have published seasonal studies and
your statement is wrong and misleading. I lot of people have a lot of
respect for your very insightful comments. Please be careful when you
suggest something that isn't supported by any history.
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.abbracadabra.com/cybercast/
----- Original Message -----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, November 15, 1999 6:57 AM
Subject: [realtraders] wheat and cattle {01}
> Not to argue with the timing analysis (this is a seasonally weak period
for
> wheat and I have no major timing clusters until Feb-Mar), however I would
> note than in my 25+ years of history for W, prices have been at the 240
> level only 4 times (3 tests of this level since Aug98 counted as one) and
on
> only one occasion (Jun77) did price significantly penetrate this level
from
> for a period of 3 months before doubling over the following 3 years. The
> most recent period has been the longest period during which prices have
> remained near this level i.e. unable to mount a significant rally from the
> 240 area - certainly not a bullish indication however. With spot prices
> approaching the 240 area and the 262% fib projection area only a dime
away,
> the overall picture in W does not currently appear to offer favorable
> risk/reward for either short or long trades.
>
> S appears to be in a similar situation, with the 460 area providing major
> support during the past 25 years. This area was strongly penetrated in
July,
> has since rebounded, and is once again challenging this support area.
> Seasonals won't become favorable until Spring. Unlike W, open interest and
> on balance volume, is a bit more favorable and there is a possible H&S
> bottom forming in the 457-460 area which is being confirmed by OBV. The
next
> daily turning point I have for S is 17Nov and weekly is 29Nov. Overall,
the
> technicals suggest that S could be setting up a very bullish upside
surprise
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: sheley <sheley@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, November 12, 1999 4:11 AM
> Subject: Re: wheat and cattle
>
>
> >
> > NW: Wheat and Soybeans made their last short time high right on
schedule,
> > circa Nov. 5, with Mercury turning Retrograde and the New Moon. Grain
> prices
> > should continue to be under negative pressure
> > until the next Full Moon, Nov. 23 and Mercury turning Direct on Nov. 24.
> Then,
> > there should be a rally lasting about two weeks to Dec. 7. Please save
> and
> > review this circa Dec. 7.
>
>
>
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