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Not to argue with the timing analysis (this is a seasonally weak period for
wheat and I have no major timing clusters until Feb-Mar), however I would
note than in my 25+ years of history for W, prices have been at the 240
level only 4 times (3 tests of this level since Aug98 counted as one) and on
only one occasion (Jun77) did price significantly penetrate this level from
for a period of 3 months before doubling over the following 3 years. The
most recent period has been the longest period during which prices have
remained near this level i.e. unable to mount a significant rally from the
240 area - certainly not a bullish indication however. With spot prices
approaching the 240 area and the 262% fib projection area only a dime away,
the overall picture in W does not currently appear to offer favorable
risk/reward for either short or long trades.
S appears to be in a similar situation, with the 460 area providing major
support during the past 25 years. This area was strongly penetrated in July,
has since rebounded, and is once again challenging this support area.
Seasonals won't become favorable until Spring. Unlike W, open interest and
on balance volume, is a bit more favorable and there is a possible H&S
bottom forming in the 457-460 area which is being confirmed by OBV. The next
daily turning point I have for S is 17Nov and weekly is 29Nov. Overall, the
technicals suggest that S could be setting up a very bullish upside surprise
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: sheley <sheley@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, November 12, 1999 4:11 AM
Subject: Re: wheat and cattle
>
> NW: Wheat and Soybeans made their last short time high right on schedule,
> circa Nov. 5, with Mercury turning Retrograde and the New Moon. Grain
prices
> should continue to be under negative pressure
> until the next Full Moon, Nov. 23 and Mercury turning Direct on Nov. 24.
Then,
> there should be a rally lasting about two weeks to Dec. 7. Please save
and
> review this circa Dec. 7.
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