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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The better question is why did you not trade
your system? If I read you correctly, the whipsaws would not have mattered
if you'd waited until your 3 MACD's were in sync. Since it sounds like
your daytrading is evolving, it may be that you still have doubts about your
system and difficulty following its signals. It might help to keep a
diary. Set up boxes for each MACD and check them off as they are
satisfied. Track other info as well at the time each MACD is hit -
time, volume, sector direction, etc. If you don't take the trade, try and
record your thoughts/feelings about why you didn't. If you do take the
trade, do the same. Set up some space to record market conditions, stock
price behavior, and your thoughts/feelings while the trade is open. Set up
boxes for your MA's. Track other info at the time that your MA's are
triggered. If you ignore the exit, record your reasons. It doesn't
really matter the details that you include in a diary but you should be able to
use it as you go along to make sure that you stick to your trading rules or that
you have a rational reason for breaking them. Logging feelings helps
identify feelings that are counter-productive to trading. Identification
is the first step in altering or controlling the feelings. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I'm a position trader of eMini's and have kept a
diary since I began trading in 1990. It has been invaluable and probably
ranks equally with my money & trade management in contributing to my
winning.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards & good trading,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Mike</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>--<BR>Aboard 35' Edel Cat "Moongate" in New
Bern, NC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2><BR></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Linda Swope
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 21, 1999 4:09
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> any suggestions for
whipsaw?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I'm making really good progress on my daytrading method. I watch a
single stock all day, one that's naturally volatile. My target per trade
is 3/8 on a trading range day and 1/2 on a trending day. I average 4
trades a day.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>My setups are based on MACD's on three time frames. I won't enter
until all three agree. I use displaced moving averages for stops, trying
to give the price action a little room for "noise".. This simple system
works, with the exception of whipsaw days. Unfortunately, there are
plenty of those!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I have been working on filtering my signals with breakouts. I won't
take a signal if the price is in the middle of the trading range, but instead
wait for a breakout above resistance or through support to confirm the
signal. I did this to help prevent whipsaw. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>But today I shorted a breakout, only to find I'd sold the bottom.
Then I bought a breakout to the upside, to find I'd bought the top. Both
breakouts just died. But if I had taken my MACD signals when they came
into unison, I'd have made my 3/8 targets.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Am I missing something? Is it this very nervous market? Or is
it a matter of some days this will save me from more whipsaws and some days
this will cost me money? My goal is high probability trading and maybe
I'm almost there, but just got burned today...</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Any insight is appreciated.</DIV>
<DIV><BR>Linda<BR>Swope's Mountain Photography<BR><A
href="http://www.swopephoto.com";>http://www.swopephoto.com</A><BR><A
href="mailto:linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Climb the
mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into you as sunshine
into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you & storms their
energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves. John Muir 1838 -
1914</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 21 20:33:21 1999
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Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 21:54:36 -0400
From: Philip <pschmi02@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: OPT: corn
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Status:
Corn options look on the cheap side to me, but I would really benefit
from the opinion of the options pros in the house.
Can anybody outline a way to evaluate when premium is really cheap? . .
. or at least "cheap enough"? . . . some formula, some quick and dirty
calculation, so that I don't, say, buy an option or put on a straddle or
something with the handicap of having paid too much right out of the
gate?
In practical terms, while the December jacks around between 200 and 205,
is anybody thinking about strategies involving buying premium? Is it
too soon? Are the options likely to get cheaper?
Philip
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