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A comparison with 82 is really not valid for the arguement you make, the
djia topped in March of 81 and declined thru july of 82 ( almost 20% on
the nose), comparing 82 to a possible bull market top ( now possibly)
isn't particularly valid. If this market gets down to 9000 the comparison
might be more valid.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: BobsKC <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Terry S. Smith <tesla@xxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, October 17, 1999 3:40 PM
> Subject: Re: where will the selling end?
>
> > Tell me this.. why would you possibly suspect we have ended a bull
> market
> > right in the middle of the most prosperous times we've had in 45
> years?
> > Unemployment is near all time lows, inflation is nearly
> > non-existant, corporate profits are fantastic, growth is showing
> little
> > sign of letting up and the world is at peace with recently bruised
> > economies showing signs of recovery. So, we are going to enter a
> bear
> > market because we took back 3/4 of a point in interest rates that
> were
> > given to help Japan's economy? Or because xyz company didn't meet
> earnings
> > expectations? Rediculous!
> >
> > I saw the last bear market .. it was in 1982 and we had 22% interest
> rates,
> > huge unemployment, stagnant business growth and a white house that
> lived in
> > never never land with Peter Pan.
> >
> > Don't let the chart/star/stats/history/ or any of the gann/slam/bam,
> > wave/mave/shave watchers upset you. Every one of these 'methods' is
> right
> > half the time and sometimes, several times in a row. (Just like
> coin
> > flipping). Keep your head, use it and remain calm. There are at
> least as
> > many undervalued stocks right now as there are overvalued stocks.
> A
> > 10-20% correction is not a bear market, it is a display of good
> health in a
> > long ranging bull market showing no signs for concern. Electing a
> > democratic congress and a democratic president would be showing
> signs for
> > concern. (See 1982).
> >
> > Follow the fundamentals and follow your common sense. October will
> be
> > over soon and everyone will be talking about how well the market has
> done
> > over the recent past instead of the October horror stories. In the
> mean
> > time, traders don't care where it goes for more than an hour or two
> anyway.
> > Position traders should be looking at the values being created by
> the
> > Octoberites.
> >
> > Anyway, I'm off to throw some bones .. I want to see what tomorrow
> brings.
> > :))
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > At 01:57 PM 10/17/99 -0700, Terry S. Smith wrote:
> > > &P's may now begin to trend, the last decline should be helpful
> > >determining where this most recent decline should end. Allow me to
> > >explain. & to what price we might find a bottom. Happy trading.
> >
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