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When trying to see/feel the bottom, I just keep reminding myself that the
bottom in Oct 98 came on a day when the futures went DOUBLE LIMIT DOWN and
closed on the highs for the day. We've haven't seen close to double limit
down... yet.
We've had a couple 2% - 3% down days in the past two weeks. Look for
something much more severe to get to the real bottom.
I've got my mutual fund clients sitting about 30% in cash. I'm going to put
1/3 of the cash into the market on the first close below 10,000 on the Dow
and then wait for a panic (500 plus Dow drop) to add another 1/3 and then a
test of lows to confirm a bottom.
Howard
>From: "Terry S. Smith" <tesla@xxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: where will the selling end?
>Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 13:57:17 -0700
>
>Dec S&P's
>In trying to figure out where this correction will end I use the following
>technique. If the market has truly turned from a bull to a bear it may now
>begin to trend, the last decline should be helpful determining where this
>most recent decline should end. Allow me to explain.
>The top on July 16th was at 1444.80 it carried down to 1287, for a move of
>approximately 158 S&P points. If I project that decline onto the most
>recent high on August 25, 1999 of 1403, I will get a projection of 1245.00
>(1403-158=1245). Bradley has a turning point on Tuesday so I would not
>expect a bottom until then. Anyone else have any other projections to what
>price we might find a bottom. Happy trading.
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