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<DIV><FONT size=2>Dan - Maybe I did not word my comments well -- or my data are
wrong. I wrote flattish o.i., but it is flat to lower. I show open interest down
over 20K since the recent local high at 115-16 and for that matter, it is down
since the mid-July peak by over 50K. So, I was saying that lower o.i. is not
confirming the losses. Then, I just said that the lower o.i. might not be as
good an indicator as it would appear to be if the hedgers that normally hedge
due to corporate bond issuance are not there due to lower corporate bonds being
placed the last couple of weeks due to higher rates.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Steve</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>---<BR>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market Strategies
Inc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com";>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>email: <A
href="mailto:swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tel: 201-995-0845<BR>Fax: 201-995-0846</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Dan
Chesler</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Real
Traders List</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 10, 1999 8:55
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Long? Bonds1</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Steve,
hi. Nice piece of bond analysis. I agree with your
conclusions. </FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>My only
question </FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond>is regarding
your comments about open interest.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>I've always thought that rising open
interest during a sideways </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>to down market is usually indicative of
a further declines to follow. </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>It reflects commercial bearish-ness,
fund shorting, or </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond>combo.
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Commercials [being the 'smart' money]
cover their short hedges when</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>they believe prices will rise, not
fall. This usually causes a decrease</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>in total open
interest.</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Is that how you would interpret open
interest as well?</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Dan
Chesler</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond><BR></FONT><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx><BR><B>To:
</B>Stig O <<A
href="mailto:olausson@xxxxxxxxxx";>olausson@xxxxxxxxxx</A>>; Realtraders
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Saturday, October 09, 1999 11:17 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Long?
Bonds1<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>7) Open interest has been flattish lately. It might be due
to stupid hedge fund tricks (remember it fell thru last summer too, though
the capital markets seized up then and prices soared). More likely, the
lower o.i. is due to lower corporate issuance due to higher rates (I am not
sure if that is true, since I do not follow corporates, but there was a
heavy Sep calendar, and Oct may be slower). Less hedgers, less o.i. But,
lack of gains in o.i. if there are no such influences reeks of a weakening
(down) trend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com";>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>email:
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tel: 201-995-0845<BR>Fax: 201-995-0846</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial"> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Oct 10 11:06:18 1999
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Date: Sun, 10 Oct 1999 09:17:01 -0700
From: "Norman E. Phair" <ericrogers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: Dtrader <dan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: Long? Bonds1
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Dan:
If you do not want to take the request made to make
your type larger, I request you make it smaller.
That way I will NOT be able to read it at all and I
will be able to hit my delete button much faster.
Norman E.
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