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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Steve,
hi. Nice piece of bond analysis. I agree with your
conclusions. </FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>My only
question </FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond>is regarding your
comments about open interest.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>I've always thought that rising open
interest during a sideways </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>to down market is usually indicative of a
further declines to follow. </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>It reflects commercial bearish-ness, fund
shorting, or </FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond>combo.
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Commercials [being the 'smart' money]
cover their short hedges when</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>they believe prices will rise, not
fall. This usually causes a decrease</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>in total open interest.</FONT></FONT><FONT
size=2><FONT face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Is that how you would interpret open
interest as well?</FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=""><FONT face=Garamond><FONT size=2>Dan
Chesler</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=2><FONT face=Garamond><BR></FONT><FONT
face=Garamond></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Garamond size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx><BR><B>To:
</B>Stig O <<A
href="mailto:olausson@xxxxxxxxxx";>olausson@xxxxxxxxxx</A>>; Realtraders
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Saturday, October 09, 1999 11:17 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Long?
Bonds1<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>7) Open interest has been flattish lately. It might be due
to stupid hedge fund tricks (remember it fell thru last summer too, though
the capital markets seized up then and prices soared). More likely, the
lower o.i. is due to lower corporate issuance due to higher rates (I am not
sure if that is true, since I do not follow corporates, but there was a
heavy Sep calendar, and Oct may be slower). Less hedgers, less o.i. But,
lack of gains in o.i. if there are no such influences reeks of a weakening
(down) trend.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Steven W. Poser, President<BR>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>url: <A
href="http://www.poserglobal.com";>http://www.poserglobal.com</A><BR>email:
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tel: 201-995-0845<BR>Fax: 201-995-0846</DIV>
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<DIV
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Oct 10 11:05:34 1999
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Date: Sun, 10 Oct 1999 22:09:10 +0900
From: James Ang <JAMES@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Status:
Rlt's,
I think british pound has finished it's C wave of it's correction, and
its going down,Any view or comments about my opinion?
boyaks
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