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Did I say that you should have gone short when Fleck did ?
Fleck is not a technical trader. He is well informed of the fundamentals.
The fact is, the upward bias in the market makes short selling a
challenging venture. The most profitable period for shorts were 1973-74,
and 1930s.
A good project and challenge for this board is to develop a trading system
that is profitable on the short side, as well as long. A good test of the
system is to run it from the 1920s thru present day for the Dow, to allow
the most data points, and challenge of a market which has been going up the
majority of that period.
The fact is, market breadth is horrible and worsening, fewer and fewer
stocks are going up, earnings are punk at best, and valuations are insane.
When will the bubble finally burst ? I agree with Fleck's theory, the
techs must breakdown first. Since that is the area of the most froth
(Nasdaq at over 120 times earnings).
Do you wait for the rain to start before you buy your umbrella ?
Can the bubble get larger before it blows ? Sure, but I would consider
risk/reward before blindly going long, hoping the long line of greater
fools keeps coming.
Do yourself a favor and read all you can on this tragety waiting to happen.
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/%7Enroubini/asia/AsiaHomepage.html
and for god's sake, prepare yourself.
http://www.advsoftware.com/summary.htm
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At 08:40 AM 10/7/99 -0400, BruceB wrote:
>James, just out of curiosity, how much would my account be down right now if
>I had gone short when Fleckenstein first became bearish? How much does the
>market have to fall before I even get back to break-even on his wonderful
>advice?
>
>Bruce
>
>
>
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